Statistics Show We Are All Related
July 2, 2006
By MATT CRENSON, Associated Press
Whoever it was probably lived a few thousand
years ago, somewhere in East Asia - Taiwan, Malaysia and Siberia all
are likely locations. He - or she - did nothing more remarkable than be
born, live, have children and die.
Yet this was the ancestor of every person now living on Earth - the
last person in history whose family tree branches out to touch all 6.5
billion people on the planet today.
That means everybody on
Earth descends from somebody who was around as recently as the reign of
Tutankhamen, maybe even during the Golden Age of ancient Greece.
There's even a chance that our last shared ancestor lived at the time
of Christ.
"It's a mathematical certainty that that person
existed," said Steve Olson, whose 2002 book "Mapping Human History"
traces the history of the species since its origins in Africa more than
100,000 years ago.
It is human nature to wonder about our
ancestors - who they were, where they lived, what they were like.
People trace their genealogy to locate themselves in the sweep of
history and position themselves in the web of human existence.
But few people realize just how intricately that web connects them not
just to people living on the planet today, but to everyone who ever
lived.
With the help of a statistician, a computer scientist
and a supercomputer, Olson has calculated just how interconnected the
human family tree is. You would have to go back in time only 2,000 to
5,000 years - and probably on the low side of that range - to find
somebody who could count every person alive today as a descendant.
Furthermore, Olson and his colleagues have found that if you go back a
little farther - about 5,000 to 7,000 years ago - everybody living
today has exactly the same set of ancestors. In other words, every
person who was alive at that time is either an ancestor to all 6
billion people living today, or their line died out and they have no
remaining descendants.
That revelation is "especially
startling," statistician Jotun Hein of England's Oxford University
wrote in a commentary on the research published by the journal Nature.
"Had you entered any village on Earth in around 3,000 B.C., the first
person you would have met would probably be your ancestor," Hein said.
It also means that all of us have ancestors of every color and creed.
Every Palestinian suicide bomber has Jews in his past. Every Sunni
Muslim in Iraq is descended from at least one Shiite. And every
Klansman's family has African roots.
How can this be?
It's simple math. Every person has two parents, four grandparents and
eight great-grandparents. Keep doubling back through the generations -
16, 32, 64, 128 - and within a few hundred years you have thousands of
ancestors.
It's nothing more than exponential growth combined
with the facts of life. By the 15th century you've got a million
ancestors. By the 13th you've got a billion. Sometime around the 9th
century - just 40 generations ago - the number tops a trillion.
But wait. How could anybody - much less everybody - alive today have
had a trillion ancestors living during the 9th century?
The answer is, they didn't. Imagine there was a man living 1,200 years
ago whose daughter was your mother's 36th great-grandmother, and whose
son was your father's 36th great-grandfather. That would put him on two
branches on your family tree, one on your mother's side and one on your
father's.
In fact, most of the people who lived 1,200 years ago
appear not twice, but thousands of times on our family trees, because
there were only 200 million people on Earth back then. Simple division
- a trillion divided by 200 million - shows that on average each person
back then would appear 5,000 times on the family tree of every single
individual living today.
But things are never average. Many of
the people who were alive in the year 800 never had children; they
don't appear on anybody's family tree. Meanwhile, more prolific members
of society would show up many more than 5,000 times on a lot of
people's trees.
Keep going back in time, and there are fewer
and fewer people available to put on more and more branches of the 6.5
billion family trees of people living today. It is mathematically
inevitable that at some point, there will be a person who appears at
least once on everybody's tree.
But don't stop there; keep
going back. As the number of potential ancestors dwindles and the
number of branches explodes there comes a time when every single person
on Earth is an ancestor to all of us, except the ones who never had
children or whose lines eventually died out.
And it wasn't all
that long ago. When you walk through an exhibit of Ancient Egyptian art
from the time of the pyramids, everything there was very likely created
by one of your ancestors - every statue, every hieroglyph, every gold
necklace.
It means when Muslims, Jews or Christians claim to be children of
Abraham, they are right.
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