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LadderFacts Adjusted Win % Formula |
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The Adjusted Win % Formula is the result of applying a
coefficient to the straight win % based on the number of
matches played.
Win and Matches Analysis
Following is an analysis of matches, win %, ranks of
opponenets played, and hot streak averages for all ladder
players by rank, based on the highest rank reached by
each player:
Rank |
Matches |
Win
% |
Ranks
Played |
Higher |
Streak |
001 |
- |
010 |
719 |
53.3% |
170 |
35.3% |
10 |
011 |
- |
050 |
489 |
52.5% |
352 |
45.9% |
9 |
051 |
- |
100 |
297 |
51.8% |
499 |
50.0% |
8 |
101 |
- |
200 |
190 |
51.8% |
613 |
52.8% |
7 |
201 |
- |
300 |
097 |
50.3% |
646 |
63.0% |
6 |
301 |
- |
400 |
058 |
49.1% |
667 |
72.4% |
5 |
401 |
- |
500 |
037 |
47.5% |
685 |
77.3% |
4 |
501 |
- |
1,000 |
017 |
48.9% |
698 |
85.1% |
3 |
1,000 |
|
+ |
005 |
53.0% |
737 |
93.9% |
1 |
The conclusions are:
- The higher the rank is, the higher is the number
of matches played.
- The higher the rank is, the higher is the win %.
- The higher the rank is, the higher is the number
of hot streak achieved.
- The higher the rank is, the higher is the average
rank of opponents played.
- The higher the rank is, the lower is the % of
rank mongering.
Win % Correlation Analysis for Top 50 Players
Following is the results of a detailed analysis of all
ladder players who reached top 50 rank in the past, by
the number of matches played by each player:
Average
Matches |
#
of
Players |
Win
% |
0037 |
007 |
62.75% |
0074 |
015 |
57.19% |
0150 |
044 |
53.92% |
0334 |
108 |
52.02% |
0699 |
096 |
51.78% |
1397 |
036 |
50.99% |
Total for all Top
50 Players |
0528 |
306 |
52.60% |
The conclusions are:
- The higher the number of matches the lower is the
chances to have a higher win %.
- The average win % of the 306 top 50 players was
52.60% which is a logical.
- The average of 500 matches per player to be in
top 50 is also logical.
It is logical to adjust the straight win % to reflect
the number of matches played. A correlation analysis gave
the following percentages to be applied on the straight
win % presently shown on the ladder statistics, based on
the number of matches played.
#
of Matches |
Suggested
%
to be applied on
the straight win % |
0001 |
- |
0020 |
050% |
077% |
0021 |
- |
0050 |
077% |
087% |
0051 |
- |
0100 |
087% |
094% |
0101 |
- |
0200 |
094% |
099% |
0201 |
- |
0300 |
099% |
100% |
0301 |
- |
0500 |
100% |
102% |
0501 |
- |
1000 |
102% |
103% |
1001 |
|
& over |
103% |
104% |
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