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LadderFacts Adjusted Win % Formula
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The Adjusted Win % Formula is the result of applying a coefficient to the straight win % based on the number of matches played.

Win and Matches Analysis

Following is an analysis of matches, win %, ranks of opponenets played, and hot streak averages for all ladder players by rank, based on the highest rank reached by each player:

Rank Matches Win % Ranks
Played
Higher Streak
001 - 010 719 53.3% 170 35.3% 10
011 - 050 489 52.5% 352 45.9% 9
051 - 100 297 51.8% 499 50.0% 8
101 - 200 190 51.8% 613 52.8% 7
201 - 300 097 50.3% 646 63.0% 6
301 - 400 058 49.1% 667 72.4% 5
401 - 500 037 47.5% 685 77.3% 4
501 - 1,000 017 48.9% 698 85.1% 3
1,000   + 005 53.0% 737 93.9% 1

The conclusions are:

  • The higher the rank is, the higher is the number of matches played.
  • The higher the rank is, the higher is the win %.
  • The higher the rank is, the higher is the number of hot streak achieved.
  • The higher the rank is, the higher is the average rank of opponents played.
  • The higher the rank is, the lower is the % of rank mongering.


Win % Correlation Analysis for Top 50 Players

Following is the results of a detailed analysis of all ladder players who reached top 50 rank in the past, by the number of matches played by each player:

Average
Matches
# of
Players
Win %
0037 007 62.75%
0074 015 57.19%
0150 044 53.92%
0334 108 52.02%
0699 096 51.78%
1397 036 50.99%
Total for all Top 50 Players
0528 306 52.60%

The conclusions are:

  • The higher the number of matches the lower is the chances to have a higher win %.
  • The average win % of the 306 top 50 players was 52.60% which is a logical.
  • The average of 500 matches per player to be in top 50 is also logical.

It is logical to adjust the straight win % to reflect the number of matches played. A correlation analysis gave the following percentages to be applied on the straight win % presently shown on the ladder statistics, based on the number of matches played.

# of Matches Suggested %
to be applied on
the straight win %
0001 - 0020 050% 077%
0021 - 0050 077% 087%
0051 - 0100 087% 094%
0101 - 0200 094% 099%
0201 - 0300 099% 100%
0301 - 0500 100% 102%
0501 - 1000 102% 103%
1001   & over 103% 104%