Cambodian Election Chaosby Richard S. EhrlichPHNOM PENH, Cambodia Dangerous squabbling over Cambodia's bloody and haphazard July 26 election, has plunged this war-torn nation into a crisis, with the international community backing powerful Prime Minister Hun Sen against his two leading rivals. To crush his opponents, and extend his 23-year-long rule for another five years, Hun Sen may reach out to elderly King Norodom Sihanouk for royal support. Raging against Hun Sen is his deposed co-prime minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh and their dual opponent, the former finance minister they both fired in 1994, Sam Rainsy. Early official election announcements claimed Hun Sen was in the lead. But he was not expected to score the required majority of 82 seats in the 122-seat Parliament, to form a government on his own. Ranariddh and Rainsy, claiming to be united against Hun Sen, insisted the election was riddled with political assassinations, voter intimidation, ballot box tampering, and a blatantly fudged count. Most official foreign observers did not agree. "Have you ever heard the expression, 'sore losers?'" said John McAuliff, an American who directs the New York-based US-Indochina Reconciliation Project, and who also officially observed some of the election. Dismissing Ranariddh and Rainsy as losers, McAuliff said in an interview, "They convinced themselves that they would win, and now they have to justify their loss somehow." But the international observers were defensive about their own weak position as judges, because only 700 foreign monitors were in Cambodia, visiting a fraction of the 11,699 polling stations where about five million people cast ballots. Some official foreign observers were even seen goofing off. For example, one American international observer -- being paid about 3,000 US dollars a month during his official two-month assignment -- temporarily abandoned his provincial post hours after the polls closed, instead of staying to keep a foreign eye on the ballot boxes. Nervously consuming beer, Rophynals and marijuana back in Phnom Penh, while sheepishly absorbing verbal abuse from friends who were appalled at his behavior, the official American observer said, "I just hope the United Nations isn't looking for me. "I left because my partner was complaining about the mosquitoes and the heat," he said in an interview. "I'm 'Car 54 Where Are You?'" he repeatedly exclaimed, remembering a childhood TV sitcom about hapless police perpetually missing along with their numbered squad car. "They expected us to sleep in the room with the ballot boxes tonight. I just hope I can get back there in the morning before they open the ballot boxes up." More serious violations involved about 20 complaints of alleged political assassinations currently being investigated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Most of the alleged killings, which occurred during the political campaign leading up to the polls, were supporters or candidates of Ranariddh and Rainsy. Government officials warned the complaints were unconfirmed and probably exaggerated, or the result of unrelated crimes. Virginia-based retired US Rear Admiral Earl P. Yates, along with California-based Edward A. Artis and their team of Vietnam War veterans and others also officially monitored the polls. In a report sent to President Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms, The Washington Times and others, Artis wrote, "For the past eight days, I have been in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, serving as an NEC, National Election Committee (and) JIOG, Joint International Observer Group, accredited observer to the national elections." Artis added, "We saw no instances of voting irregularities at any of the seven polling stations that we visited, nor did we hear of one instance of voter intimidation." Helms asked to see the team's final report, Artis said. Artis said in an interview his team was invited by Hun Sen's Interior Minister, Sar Kheng, to officially observe the polls. Kheng was also a candidate in the election. Yates signed an earlier thank-you letter to Kheng by concluding, "With Highest esteem and with dedication to your cause of Freedom." Tens of thousands of official Cambodian observers also monitored the election, usually without any foreigners around. Critics claimed thousands of Hun Sen's supporters infiltrated the local observers, and were also manipulating the National Election Committee and other strategic positions within the polling apparatus. But no single leader was ever expected to score enough votes to rule alone. Ranariddh and Rainsy dreamed they would, together, win enough Parliament seats to kick out Hun Sen, and form their own coalition alongside a few smaller parties. But Hun Sen seemed to be scarfing up enough seats to possibly try and split his two enemies. Hun Sen was widely predicted to eventually entice Ranariddh to break away and submit to a position as a junior coalition partner. Asked in an interview if that plot was possible, Rainsy said Wednesday, "I don't think so. "I think Prince Ranariddh has learned lessons from the past, and he would not cooperate with Hun Sen." Rainsy was referring to tank clashes in the streets of Phnom Penh in July 1997, when a clumsy coalition comprising Hun Sen and Ranariddh -- as twin prime ministers -- erupted in violence, killing more than 60 people. Amid the bloodshed, Hun Sen emerged victorious. Ranariddh became an international fugitive, eventually clawing his way back to be a candidate in Sunday's election after undergoing a kangaroo trial and receiving a pardon. Another looming nightmare was a warning by Ranariddh and Rainsy that they may boycott Parliament, to deprive it of enough members so Hun Sen could not form a new government. To avoid the boycott, Hun Sen would have to agree to hold fresh elections in a handful of allegedly fraudulent districts, which would be used as test cases to determine if the official results were valid or not. If the new elections in those sample districts revealed vastly different poll results, the opposition could then demand a fresh election throughout much or all of Cambodia. Ranariddh said, "We have observed many irregularities in the polling, counting and reporting of the election results. "In areas where major irregularities occurred, we demand that elections be reorganized and carried out, with proper procedure and observation," Ranariddh added. Fears of renewed killing prompted all sides to demand a fast and peaceful solution. One Cambodian businesswoman, her eyebrows knotted with worry, said, "I don't care who wins, who loses, they have to accept it like this. If they bargain and bargain there could again be war." Rainsy said he and Ranariddh "have pledged to work together" and their coalition would be topped by Ranariddh as prime minister. Cambodia's post-election fragility, however, may shatter if the king enters the fray. Ranariddh is King Sihanouk's estranged son as a result of the monarch's many wives and mistresses. Hun Sen may play upon that often-alienated relationship by pilgrimaging to the northeast town of Siem Reap -- where the world famous, slave-built Angkor Wat temple complex sprawls -- to meet the king at one of his residences there. If Sihanouk then announces Hun Sen won the election in a respectable way, Ranariddh and Rainsy would be forced into a corner because the throne holds an influential sway on public opinion. Some predict Hun Sen will convince the king to prod Ranariddh into joining a coalition as a junior partner, under Hun Sen, against Rainsy. As a reward to the monarch, Hun Sen may promise to ensure the throne is passed on to whomever Sihanouk may chose as his royal heir. Rainsy, however, said though Hun Sen "threatens even the king," Sihanouk "will make a sound decision" and be "just and fair to the Cambodian people." Richard S. Ehrlich has a Master's Degree in Journalism from Columbia University, and is the co-author of the classic book of epistolary history, "HELLO MY BIG BIG HONEY!" -- Love Letters to Bangkok Bar Girls and Their Revealing Interviews.
from The Laissez Faire City Times
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