What is the real percentage of sex offenders unaccounted for, 25%, 100,000 or are both a misstatement of the historical facts we know?
That percentage or number, seems to have become a commonly accepted number, like a factoid because it is always printed or cited, even today in April 2006 as I UPDATE this, 3-years after it was first revealed as a rough estimate. Today there are proposed laws before both, state legislatures and the U.S. Congress, based upon the 24% being a factually correct number and it is nothing more than a factoid!
How was that 24% calculated?
CBS News reports: "Parents for Megan's Law (PML) contacted all 50 states by telephone to ask about the accuracy of their registries. It found that states on average were unable to account for 24 percent of sex offenders supposed to be in the databases." The exact method of calculation is unknown.
Confusing is this "And 19 states, including Texas and New York, said they were unable to track how many sex offenders were failing to register, or simply did not know." "All states responded to the group's survey, but only 32 were able to provide failure rates. Many of these said they have never audited their sex offender registries and provided only rough estimates of their accuracy. The survey, ... relied on the word of officials in each state, ..."
How can you arrive at 24% when, many don't keep track of registrants, many do not audit the registry, and some only verbally provided rough estimates of accuracy. 24% is a precise number but how can that be calculated from those statements?
Actually PML did two surveys in 2003. The first arrived at the number of registered offenders (461,134 Laura Ahearn comment 8-22-05) and the second about the 24%. PML web site indicates they have completed surveys, but do not indicate the exact year each was done. (verified June 2005)
Since February 2003 the number of registered offenders has increased, approximately 550,000 in 2005 (PML shows number of offenders from their 2004 Poll of the states, when they rated each state).
However, clearly everyone has carried forward the 2003 24% as though it were a fact in later years and skipped over that it is a rough estimate of some of the 32 states reporting in 2003.
Since the CBS News report of 2003, local police agencies nationwide have conducted thousands of address verifications, and many offenders updated their addresses. Their work cannot be ignored by using a mathematical presumption.
It is true that in 2005 and now 2006 there is no known number or percentage of unaccounted for offenders. However, it is misleading to apply the 2003 percentage in later years, and in doing so, create unaccounted for offenders labeling them missing.
Ted Koppel had this to say on Megans' law:
"Good laws are almost never produced in the cauldron of public passion. The fact of the matter is that when we are angry, when our primary motive is punishment, we are impulsive and very rarely smart.
The Sicilians have a wonderful line which captures the essence of that: "Revenge," they say, "is a dessert best eaten cold." Passing a piece of legislation with a particular victim or, for that matter, criminal in mind is bound to prove less than satisfactory over the long haul.
Megan's Law may be trying to do too much. So much, in fact, that it's turning out to be unenforceable. That's neither fair to the convicted sex offender who's done his time and now has his sickness under control, nor is it providing any real protection to the most vulnerable among us. It needs to be fixed on both counts."
Ted Koppel, ABC Nightline, 2-5-04 Nightline: Address Unknown: Well-Intentioned Legislation Doesn't Always Produce Good Laws!
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Further, when PML did their telephone survey, we don't know if the states were asked if state laws had exempted any offenders from registration or if judges had under state laws? When registries began various states did exempt some offenders, such as adjudicated juvenile offenses, court orders allow such exemptions. These circumstances cannot be ignored, and they are not missing offenders, and to say they are is to misstate the facts.
Florida's registry has been rated as A+ in both 2003 and 2005. Florida has also had more recent tragedies than other states. Is Ted Koppel still correct, Megans' laws are not protecting the children?
Knowing where an prior offender resides, likened to a telephone directory, does not tell us anything about propensity for further violence.
The common element in the backgrounds of each of the recent offenders in these tragedies, and in other states is, they were denied or refused treatment, when they were last imprisoned. Florida stopped providing both sex offender treatment and drug treatment for those it incarcerates.
While treatment will not cure the violence, treatment is an active preventative measure, rather than a passive measure as Megans' laws are. Knowing where prior offenders are is passive, changing their behaviors is active and preventative.
eAdvocate April 2006
Laura Ahearn comment: "Restrictive law makes N.Y. city [Binghampton] off-limits to sex offenders" by Darryl McGrath, Globe Correspondent (August 22, 2005). "... Ahearn said that a 2003 survey by her group highlighted how easily laws can fail if they don't have adequate funding or cooperation between state and municipal officials. ''We found that nearly a quarter of the nation's sex offenders were failing to comply with state registration laws," she said. ''At that time, there were 461,134 registered sex offenders.""
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The First News Reports
February 6, 2003: CBS News
"Thousands Of Sex Offenders 'Lost'"
"Parents for Megan's Law contacted all 50 states by telephone to ask about the accuracy of their registries.
It found that states on average were unable to account for 24 percent of sex offenders supposed to be in the databases. And 19 states, including Texas and New York, said they were unable to track how many sex offenders were failing to register, or simply did not know. [snip]
But the survey found that up-to-date addresses for more than 77,000 sex offenders are missing from the databases of 32 states. And in the other 18 states and the District of Columbia, which are responsible for 133,705 offenders, thousands of the ex-convicts may have disappeared. [snip]
All states responded to the group's survey, but only 32 were able to provide failure rates. Many of these said they have never audited their sex offender registries and provided only rough estimates of their accuracy."
February 7, 2003: St. Petersburg Times
"Florida among best on Megan's Law data"
"Parents for Megan's Law contacted all 50 states by telephone to ask about the accuracy of their registries.
It found that states on average were unable to account for 24 percent of sex offenders supposed to be in the databases. And 18 states, including Texas and New York, plus the District of Columbia said they were unable to track how many sex offenders were failing to register, or simply did not know. [snip]
But the survey found that up-to-date addresses for more than 77,000 sex offenders are missing from the databases of 32 states. And in the other 18 states and the District of Columbia, which are responsible for 133,705 offenders, thousands of the ex-convicts may have disappeared.
All states responded to the group's survey, but only 32 were able to provide failure rates. Many of these said they have never audited their sex offender registries and provided only rough estimates of their accuracy. [snip]
The survey, which the group plans to release today, relied on the word of officials in each state, unlike the AP's analysis in California, which was based on a CD-ROM of data taken directly from the registry."
Quoted Over Time:
Copied from various sources.
4-17-06 "Some estimates indicate that more than 500,000 convicted sex offenders live in the United States, of which the whereabouts of approximately 150,000 are unknown to authorities.
3-20-06 "There are over 500,000 convicted sex offenders in the United States. The government cannot account for over 100,000 of those 500,000 criminals. When you break that down, that means we do not know the whereabouts of over 20% of the country’s convicted sex offenders.
3-10-06 "Pointing out that the whereabouts are unknown for approximately one-fifth of the 500,000 registered sex offenders...
4-11-05: Officials estimate there are more than 400,000 convicted sex offenders in the United States. As many as one-fourth of sex offenders have moved and eluded law enforcement despite laws requiring them to report their home addresses,
5-3-05: there are an estimated 400,000 registered sex offenders in this country, and, believe it or not, the authorities have lost track of as many as 100,000 of them. That‘s 100,000, one in four, 100,000 missing.
5-11-05: There are 550,000 convicted sex offenders in the U.S. At least 24 percent are unaccounted for.
6-1-05: reports there are 400,000 sex offenders nationwide and 25 percent of them have fallen through the cracks.
8-24-05 "Of the 551,000 sex offenders registered in the USA, about 100,000 are missing or have failed to give a current address ..."
5-18-05: "Today, there are more than a half million sex offenders that are "supposed" to be registered in the United States; however at least 100,000 of these offenders are actually "missing" from the system.
7-15-05 "This means that out of the 550,000 sex offenders registered with states, the government can not identify 165,000 of them.
6-12-05: There are nearly 550,000 registered sex offenders in the United States and there are over 100,000 of them lurking about communities incognito—that is, law enforcement has no idea where they are or what they are doing.
4-8-05: Officials estimate there are more than 400,000 convicted sex offenders in the United States. As many as one-fourth of sex offenders have moved and eluded law enforcement despite laws requiring them to report their home addresses, according to the National Center for Missing & Exploited Children, a Washington-based advocacy organization.
Political Site: There are approximately 550,000 registered sex offenders in the United States, but an estimated 100,000 sex offenders have failed to register with their states as required.
Unknown Dt: There are more than 400,000 sex offenders in the United States and 100,000 are actually missing and law-enforcement has no idea where they are located.
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