January 26, 2004 2003 OSCAR NOMINEE PREDICTIONS

So, there’s a loudmouth at the office who wants to make bets over who can predict the most 2003 Oscar nominees?  Follow my advice, bet on these 25 or so movies, and you’re sure to be rich beyond your wildest dreams of avarice. THE F&SN CRITIC’S PRICELESS ADVICE… Play the numbers: Do I really think “Mystic River” is going to get 7 nominations?  It’ll be lucky if it gets 5.  But instead of busting a gut trying to think of that stray film that’ll get a nomination for Best Original Musical Score and nothing else, just throw a bunch of nominations toward the 6 or 7 major contenders.  The Oscars tend to cluster like cat litter.  DON’T BE PICKY, JUST THROW THEM ALL AT A FEW FLICKS AND YOU’LL BE MOSTLY RIGHT! SO WHO ARE THE SIX OR SEVEN BIG CONTENDERS? Remember, the Oscars want to be smart…so no “X2,” no “POTC,” no “T3,” and nothing else that can be can summarized by initials will appear in the major categories of Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Acting.  No “Matrix,” either, for all its pomposity the Oscars didn’t buy it in ’99, and they aren’t buying now.  DON’T EXPECT DUMB MOVIES TO GET BEYOND TECHNICAL AWARDS!

BEST PICTURE Cold Mountain The Lord of the Rings Lost in Translation Master & Commander Mystic River MAYBES Last Samurai In America Finding Nemo Seabiscuit BEST DIRECTOR Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Jim Sheridan, In America Peter Weir, Master & Commander MAYBES Edward Zwick, The Last Samurai Anthony Minghella, Cold Mountain Gary Ross, Seabiscuit ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY American Splendor In America Finding Nemo Lost in Translation Love Actually MAYBES Bend It Like Beckham Something's Gotta Give ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Cold Mountain Lord of the Rings Mystic River Master & Commander Monster MAYBES Big Fish Girl with a Pearl Earring Seabiscuit ANIMATED FEATURE Brother Bear Finding Nemo Triplets of Belleville MAYBES Sinbad:  Legend of the Seven Seas Millennium Actress FILM EDITING Cold Mountain Kill Bill: Volume 1 Last Samurai Lord of the Rings Master & Commander MAYBES Seabiscuit Mystic River CINEMATOGRAPHY Cold Mountain Girl With a Pearl Earring Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings Master & Commander MAYBE Big Fish VISUAL EFFECTS Lord of the Rings Matrix Revoloaded Pirates of the Caribbean MAYBES Big Fish Hulk X2 T3, anything else with initials

SO WHO ARE THE SIX OR SEVEN BIG CONTENDERS? Remember, the Oscars want to be smart…so no “X2,” no “POTC,” no “T3,” and nothing else that can be can summarized by initials will appear in the major categories of Picture, Director, Screenplay, and Acting.  No “Matrix,” either, for all its pomposity the Oscars didn’t buy it in ’99, and they aren’t buying now.  DON’T EXPECT DUMB MOVIES TO GET BEYOND TECHNICAL AWARDS! But the Oscars don’t want to be too smart…they want to appear prescient, not obscure.  You know that art film from April that you loved?  Nope.  The Oscars don’t want to be the mouthpiece of the people, but they also don’t want to seem out of touch, so no “All the Real Girls,” “The Good Thief,” “Better Luck Tomorrow,” or “Owning Mahowny.”  “American Splendor” might get lucky though.  STICK WITH SOLID BOX-OFFICE FILMS, if not at least hits, then flicks that had good runs at the multiplex. The Oscars have short-term memories…that’s partly why so much brainy, artsy, important stuff has just come out.  If you can’t remember anything from April, don’t worry. The Oscars are safe…you may think the best movie of 2003 is something kind of crazy, but don’t hold your breath when 4 big-budget historical epics have come out since September. WITH THAT IN MIND HERE ARE THE BIG SEVEN…bet the farm on these. THE EPICS Cold Mountain The Last Samurai The Lord of the Rings Master and Commander THE INDIES In America Lost in Translation Mystic River

Article by the F&SN Critic.  Predictions by the F&SN Critic and His Damn Wife.  (Jan 31:  Correct predictions highlighted yellow.)

ACTOR Russell Crowe, Master & Commander Tom Cruise, The Last Samurai Ben Kingsley, House of Sand & Fog Bill Murray, Lost in Translation Sean Penn, Mystic River MAYBES Billy Bob Thornton, Bad Santa Jude Law, Cold Mountain Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean ACTRESS Scarlett Johansson, Lost in Translation Diane Keaton, Something’s Gotta Give Nicole Kidman, Cold Mountain Samantha Morton, In America Charlize Theron, Monster MAYBES Helen Mirren, Calendar Girls Naomi Watts, 21 Grams SUPPORTING ACTOR Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams Albert Finney, Big Fish Bill Nighy, Love Actually Tim Robbins, Mystic River Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai MAYBES Paul Bettany, Master & Commander William H. Macy, Seabiscuit Alec Baldwin, The Cooler Djimon Hounsou, In America SUPPORTING ACTRESS Patricia Clarkson, The Station Agent Hope Davis, American Splendor Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River Christina Ricci, Monster Renee Zellweger, Cold Mountain MAYBES Holly Hunter, Thirteen Laura Linney, Mystic River MAKEUP Cat in the Hat Lord of the Rings Monster Pirates of the Caribbean X2: X-Men United MAYBE Big Fish COSTUMES Cold Mountain Girl With a Pearl Earring Last Samurai, The Lord of the Rings Master & Commander ART DIRECTION Cold Mountain Girl With a Pearl Earring Last Samurai Lord of the Rings Master & Commander MAYBES Cat in the Hat POTC Matrix

SOUND Cold Mountain Last Samurai Lord of the Rings Master & Commander Matrix Revolutions SOUND EFFECTS EDITING Lord of the Rings Matrix Revoloaded MAYBES Hulk Bad Boys II SONG Brother Bear Cold Mountain In America Lord of the Rings Mona Lisa Smile SCORE Big Fish Cold Mountain Girl With a Pearl Earring Last Samurai Lord of the Rings MAYBE Mystic River)