Wednesday, January 25th, 2006 Messing around with Oscar predictions (correct predictions are high-lighted in red)
BEST PICTURE and BEST DIRECTOR This year, no fewer than 12 films have at least a fighting chance of being nominated for Oscars for Best Picture and/or Best Director.  They are as follows:  "Brokeback Mountain," "The Constant Gardener," "Crash," "Good Night and Good Luck," "A History of Violence," "King Kong," "Match Point," "Munich," "The New World," "Pride and Prejudice," "Syriana," and "Walk the Line."  I've seen all of them except the likely winner, "Brokeback Mountain," which I'll probably catch this Saturday.  My waiting game for it to return from the art theater to the multiplex three minutes away worked.  We can eliminate a few of these films from the running right now:  "A History of Violence" and "Crash" are simply too small in cinematic scope.  "King Kong" did not live up to its predicted box office, although it may squeak in for Best Director and will certainly do well with technical awards like Visual Effects, Makeup, etc.  As for the other 9 contenders, I've pondered every possible combination at one point or another in the past few weeks.  I think it's safe to say we can toss out "The New World" simply because it's too unconventional, too rich, and too unlikely to be a big box office success (in short, it is simply TOO good to win Oscars).  Like "Kong," it may sneak in for Best Director, but will mostly be competing with "Memoirs of a Geisha" for stuff like Makeup and Art Direction.  That leaves 8. From those 8 it's safe to assume "Brokeback" will be in both categories, as will "Match Point" and "Good Night."  That leaves 2 open spots and 5 contenders.  I'm gonna go with "Munich" in both categories and a split between the enormously popular "Walk the Line" for Picture and "The Constant Gardener" for Director.  "Pride and Prejudice" and "Syriana" will simply be muscled out, the former ending up with nominations for Screenplay, Costumes, etc., and the latter for Screenplay, Editing, and Supporting Actor.  So this is my final prediction and I'm sticking with it: Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain Good Night, and Good Luck Match Point Munich Walk the Line Long shots:  see above. Best Director Some heavy-hitters, to be sure:  the world's most popular director and two-time winner Spielberg; pop icon and previous winner Peter Jackson; critical goldenboy Fernando Mereilles; long-time critical favorite and "Crouching Tiger" Ang Lee; industry favorite George Clooney; resurrected former winner Woody; and movie snob icon Malick.  Here goes: Woody Allen, Match Point George Clooney, Good Night and Good Luck Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Fernando Mereilles, The Constant Gardener Steven Spielberg, Munich Long shot:  Terry Malick, The New World
		ACTOR Terence Howard, Hustle and Flow Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote Heath Ledger, Brokeback Mountain Joaquin Phoenix, Walk the Line David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck MAYBE: Russell Crowe, Cinderella Man Tommy Lee Jones, Three Burials Viggo Mortensen, History of Violence Jake Gyllenhaal, Brokeback Mountain If there’s any justice…Jonathan Rhys-Meyers, Match Point ACTRESS Felicity Huffmann, Transamerica Keira Knightley, Pride and Prejudice Charlize Theron, North Country Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line Zhang Ziyi, Memoirs of a Geisha MAYBES: Q’orianka Kilcher, The New World Judi Dench, Mrs. Henderson Presents Renee Zellweger, Cinderella Man Maria Bello, A History of Violence SUPPORTING ACTOR George Clooney, Syriana Matt Dillon, Crash Paul Giamatti, Cinderella Man Ed Harris, A History of Violence Bob Hoskins, Mrs. Henderson Presents LONG SHOTS:  Matthew Broderick, The Producers Will Ferrell, The Producers Jake Gyllenhall, Brokeback Mountain Jeffrey Wright, Syriana Chris Cooper, Syriana Christian Bale, The New World SUPPORTING ACTRESS Scarlet Johansson, Match Point Shirley Maclaine, In Her Shoes Frances McDormand, North Country Michelle Williams, Brokeback Mountain Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener MAYBES:  Q’orianka Kilcher, The New World Maria Bello, A History of Violence Michelle Yeoh, Memoirs of a Geisha Emily Mortimer, Match Point
							FILM EDITING **Constant Gardener, The Good Night, and Good Luck Munich New World, The *Syriana MAYBE:  Brokeback Mountain King Kong Walk the Line Crash ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Crash Good Night, and Good Luck Match Point New World, The Three Burials… MAYBES:  Squid and the Whale Cinderella Man Junebug ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Brokeback Mountain History of Violence Munich Pride and Prejudice Syriana (actually Original...) MAYBES: Walk the Line Capote Constant Gardener
						VISUAL EFFECTS Chronicles of Narnia King Kong Star Wars III MAYBES:  Batman Begins Harry Potter 4 War of the Worlds ART DIRECTION Chronicles of Narnia King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha New World, The Star Wars III MAYBE: Pride and Prejudice Casanova Harry Potter Kingdom of Heaven CINEMATOGRAPHY Constant Gardener, The Good Night, and Good Luck Memoirs of a Geisha New World, The Pride and Prejudice MAYBE:  Brokeback Mountain Jarhead King Kong Kingdom of Heaven COSTUMES Chronicles of Narnia King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha New World, The Pride and Prejudice MAYBE: Casanova Kingdom of Heaven Good Night, and Good Luck Brokeback Mountain Batman Begins Harry Potter Star Wars III MAKEUP King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha New World, The MAYBE:  Chronicles of Narnia Pride and Prejudice Brothers Grimm Harry Potter Star Wars III Walk the Line
			SOUND Chronicles of Narnia King Kong New World, The Star Wars Episode III Walk the Line MAYBE:  War of the Worlds Batman Begins Jarhead Munich SOUND EDITING King Kong Star Wars III War of the Worlds MAYBE:  Chronicles of Narnia Jarhead ANIMATED FEATURE Madagascar Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride Wallace and Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit MAYBE:  Robots Chicken Little FOREIGN FEATURE Uh... SCORE Brokeback Mountain King Kong Memoirs of a Geisha Munich Pride and Prejudice MAYBES: New World, The Chronicles of Narnia Harry Potter 4 Star Wars III Syriana SONG Uh...same as the Golden Globes Maybes:  Something from Corpse Bride