Woe is the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Sciences. Trapped in a quintessential “damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don’t” predicament, no matter what films they pick as Oscar winners and Oscar nominees, complaints will always be lodged against them. The Oscars are voted on by filmmakers themselves: actors voting for acting, directors voting for directors, make-up artists voting for make-up, and everyone voting for Best Picture. These voters must spend every waking minute in constant dread of being deemed too old-fashioned (or perhaps too far-out), unrealistic (or perhaps too realistic), too populist (or too esoteric). They live in dread of a public that sees them as being out-of-touch with popular choices, not a representative of the average movie-goer, and therefore outdated; or, conversely, as a corrupt, commercialized entity that merely doles out awards to box-office champs.
When they pick violent films (“Braveheart,” “Saving Private Ryan,” and “Pulp Fiction”) they are called decadent and corrupt; when they ignore violence (“Raging Bull” passed over for “Ordinary People”), they are accused of being ostriches and unadventurous. When they pick box-office monsters instead of more artsy fare (“Titanic,” the highest-grossing film of all-time, over the moderate financial success “L.A. Confidential”), they are accused of being puppets of the mob; but when they reward obscurity (“The English Patient”) they are denounced as not representing the average viewer. If their picks are too traditional—if every year a giant historical costume epic wins—then they will be seen as stagnant, and not really picking the “best” picture, but the “best of a certain genre.” What the average complainant seems to want out of the Academy is for a movie that is mainstream, intelligent (but not impenetrable), and successful (but not too successful) to win. But picking a movie like that is no different than picking only from the historical costume epics.
What we can draw from the trends among Oscar-favorites are three criteria for how the Academy chooses its films: money already made, money that can be made, and the subjective artistic opinions of the voters.
2001 A Beautiful Mind
2000 Gladiator (picture) / Traffic (director)
1999 American Beauty
1998 Shakespeare in Love (picture) / Saving Private Ryan (director)
1997 Titanic
1996 The English Patient
1995 Braveheart
1994 Forrest Gump
1993 Schindler’s List
1992 Unforgiven
2001 Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone & The Fellowship of the Ring
2000 Mission Impossible 2 & Gladiator
1999 Star Wars Episode I
1998 Saving Private Ryan
1997 Titanic
1996 Independence Day
1995 Toy Story
1994 Forrest Gump & Beauty and the Beast
1993 Jurassic Park
1992 Aladdin
If the Oscars are going to have any sort of meaning to the public, the voters must listen to public opinion. That means ticket sales, and that means that YOU, yes YOU, the lay viewer, play a role in deciding which movies become popular enough to be nominated for Oscars. So whether or not you saw nothing but art films, junk films, or “The Two Towers” fifteen times, the money YOU spent contributed to this year’s Oscar nominees. If you doubt the importance of popular taste in picking the Oscars, just look for critically-acclaimed box-office flops among the nominated films. Where’s “The Fast Runner?” “The Man From Elysian Fields?” “City of God?” Where are “Punch-Drunk Love,” “The Grey Zone,” “Auto-Focus,” “Moonlight Mile,” “13 Conversations About One Thing,” or “Lovely and Amazing?”
But let’s take a look at the ten most popular movies from 2002, six of which are nominated for Oscars: “Spider-Man” (two nominations), “The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers” (six nominations, including Best Picture), “Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones” (Visual Effects), “My Big Fat Greek Wedding” (Original Screenplay), “Catch Me If You Can” (two nominations), and “Ice Age” (Best Animated Feature). “Signs” and “Harry Potter” were both overlooked, as were the critically-lukewarm sequels “Men in Black II” and “Austin Powers in Goldmember.” And while Oscar-favorites “The Hours,” “Gangs of New York,” “Chicago,” “The Pianist,” “Adaptation,” “Far From Heaven,” “Road to Perdition,” and “Frida” have not broken any box-office records, they have certainly made respectable piles of money.
2) Money that can be made
So you haven’t seen “The Hours,” “Adaptation,” “Far From Heaven,” “Frida,” or “The Pianist” yet? But imagine how their ticket sales have improved since they were nominated for Oscars. Imagine how much more money they’ll make once they’ve won something, or once you walk by them in the video store and you see the words “Five Oscar Nominations!!” blasted across a box. Oscar voters will try to throw their weight behind movies that will most benefit from a nomination or a win. Why? Because they’re voting in favor of their own industry.