Men's Sprints

The 100m looks to be one of the races of the championships with five-time champion Matt Shirvington looking in the form to maintain his streak.  Early season standout Patrick Johnson had a setback in the Sydney A-Series meet where he could not catch Shirvington into a strong headwind and will have to gather himself in order to have a chance at taking his first national 100m crown.  Queenslander Paul Di Bella, Australia's number three sprinter of the past few years, is a little behind his best form and will have to work hard to hold out sprinters such as Ambrose Ezinwa or young Adam Miller.  

PREDICTION: Shirvington Johnson Miller - One of the closest races in the titles and both the national record and the 10 second barrier are in serious danger given good conditions.

Subject to his run in the 100m, Patrick Johnson is the warm favourite to take his second national 200m title but his recent races have not been as impressive as his fans expected.  Nigerian born Ambrose Ezinwa will be Johnson's main competition in the furlong with a bunch of challengers behind these two.  It's a lottery for third and much will depend on the final start list and how many 100m or 400m specialists will double..

PREDICTION: Johnson Ezinwa Flowers - PJ to regain some confidence after the 100m.  Hopefully good conditions will see fast legal PBs for a number of athletes, including the winner.

Daniel Batman vs defending champion Clinton Hill in the 400m should be another highlight of the nationals and favouritism is fairly even.  Daniel Batman's recent indoor tour of Europe, which met with mixed success, has apparently aggravated a back complaint which kept him from starting in the Sydney A-Series meet.  Hopefully he can get back to his best form over the next couple of weeks as, if both start, he and Hill could push each other to sub 45 second times.

South Australian Mark Ormrod seems to be coming good at the business end of the season and, with Casey Vincent and Patrick Dwyer, will challenge 2001 champ Paul Pearce for the bronze.

PREDICTION:  Batman Hill Pearce

COMMENT: I would hope that Australian squads are selected for both World Championships relay events with domestic standards reasonably strong this season.  Shirvington and Johnson are almost certain selections in the short sprints and the addition of Ezinwa (pending eligibility), di Bella and Miller would comprise a promising team.  Miller with the likes of Tim Williams, David Baxter or Fabrice Lapierre could also form a reasonable World Sudent Games squad.

Similarly, Batman and Hill are unlikely to miss individual selection and the addition of another three athletes (from Dwyer, Pearce, Vincent, Ormrod, Steffensen or Rehart) would allow us to enter a competitive 4x400m squad.  Solid depth in the 400m this season might also allow Australia to enter a fairly strong squad in the World Student Games, which are running concurrently with the World Champs.

Distance  Events

Kris McCarthy looks to be an odds-on favourite for his third national 800m crowm, barring injury, illness or an accident.  The Victorian recently ran a 3-47 PB over 1500m in Melbourne and showed his speed is returning with a seasonal best of 48.0 for 400m the same night.  His experience should also stand him in good stead, unless the pace is very slow early, when anything can happen.  If the pace at 400m is reasonable (51-53), I can see him winning by 10-20 metres if he pushes all the way to the line.  The lack of an A qualifying time so far this year is the major worry - although by IAAF standards, he qualified last year in Zurich with his 1-45.82 seasonal best.  It's a shame defending champion Nick Hudson came down with glandular fever in January as his late 2002 form showed potential for sub 1-48 times in 2003.

PREDICTION: McCarthy McDonald Devjak 

The 1500m is quite open in 2003 with last season's standout Youcef Abdi running below his best so far and defending champion Craig Mottram missing the entire A-Series in 2003 through injury.  Mike Power ran impressively in Sydney to return to his best form and will be amongst the favourites for the national 1500m title - assuming he starts.  Local hero Alistair Stevenson has raced sparingly over the distance this year but could still be the one to beat with recent times over 800m and 3000m leading me to believe he could beat 3-40 if they don't dawdle too much.  Achieving even a B qualifier of 3-37.10 will be almost impossible in Australia without serious pace assistance, so we will have to look to the European circuit to see if any Australians can earn selection for Paris.

PREDICTION: Stevenson Power Adbi 

The 3000m will be a fairly novel national championships in 2003.  This distance has been added due to the national titles for 5000m and 10000m being separated from the Brisbane championships.  The main 1500m chances will also be favourites in the 3000m but it will all come down to the entry list on the day.

PREDICTION: Power Stevenson Tucker 

Queenslander Peter Nowill will make it a hat-trick of national steeplechase titles, though he could be pushed by Mark Tucker who broke through recently for a PB in Sydney, despite the ordinary conditions.  Tucker could manage another best performance, below 8-40, in Brisbane and could well represent Australia in the steeple and/or the 5000m at the Korean World Student Games later this year.

Hurdles

PREDICTION: (van der Kuyp) Ewen Anderson Purcell

The strong domestic depth in Australian 400m Hurdling apparent just a few years ago has almost disappeared due to retirements and injuries.  Michael Hazel is the only fit Australian currently competing to have ever cracked 50 seconds and will be an unbackable favourite in Brisbane.  There are still ten hurdles to get over though, and if Hazel has any accidents, a group of young challengers will be keen to steal his title.  Hazel is pretty certain to be selected in the World Student team and could use this experience as a stepping-stone towards major representation in 2004.

Hopefully Matt Beckenham can continue his comeback after injuries and illness wrecked his last few seasons.  He could yet challenge for a place at the nationals and some good luck (for a change) might see him return to his sub-50 second best next year as he and Hazel strive for Olympic selection.

PREDICTION: Hazel Sutherland Ladd.

Jumps

PREDICTION: Moroney Lodge Hamlyn-Harris

Viktor Chistiakov has been the best Australian performer in the Pole Vault during 2003, equalling the Australian indoor record of 5.60 a number of times during his European campaign.  World Champion Dmitri Markov is usually at his best in championship events and will provide Chistiakov with a strong challenge.  Markov's training partner, defending champion Paul Burgess, will also be in the mix.  The unnecessary reduction of the World Championships qualifying period by Athletics Australia means that neither Burgess nor Chistiakov (who qualified with marks set last year) might ratify a spot if they win with a height below 5.70m.  Markov needs to improve to at least 5.65 to get an allowable AA qualifying mark and I think he can do this comfortably if he is reasonably fit in Brisbane.

Behind the big three, improvers Steve Hooker and Luke Vedelago will challenge their bests ahead of expected representation at the Daegu World Student Games.

PREDICTION: Markov Burgess Chistiakov 

No Australian long jumper has yet achieved the difficult World Championships qualifying mark, despite strong domestic fields.  The tough 8.20m A standard has only been approached by 1998 Commonwealth champion Peter Burge with his assisted mark of 8.24m in windy Perth.  Olympic silver medallist Jai Taurima has only recorded two non-foul jumps (from about 24 attempts) all season while 1999 World Championships finalist Shane Hair is still below his best.  Defending champion Tim Parravicini suffered an injury late in the season and it will be interesting to see if he is fit in Brisbane.  18 year old World Schools champion John Thornell looks back to his best after a slight stress fracture late in 2002 and he, along with the improving Rob Stevens and Peter Parsons, could all surprise the bigger names with PB efforts around 8m in Brisbane.  

PREDICTION: Burge Stevens Taurima

Veteran Andrew Murphy, chasing his eleventh national title, is probably still the slight favourite to win in Brisbane, despite losing to Jacob McReynolds in Sydney recently.  I think his experience might well prove a deciding factor in the competition and hopefully conditions are such that 17 metre jumps might be seen from both men.  16.80 might be enough to earn McReynolds World Championships selection but he may have to be content with a berth in the World Student Games team.  Murphy would probably need an A qualifier of 17.10 to book his ticket to Paris. 

Rumours are rife that this could be the last national title attempt for Murphy, but I wouldn't be surprised if a win here might spur him to attempt one more Olympic campaign in Athens.

PREDICTION: Murphy McReynolds Ferguson

Throws

The shot can be an up-and-down competition at times, but it is promising to see a number of Australian males over the 18m barrier consistently this season.  Hopefully this close competition for minor medals at the nationals will result in some well earned personal bests - Clay Cross, Rhys Jones, Chris Gaviglio, Scott Martin and veteran Stuart Gyngell are all in with a shot at the silver or bronze and the performances of the first three named might decide World Student Games representation in this event.

PREDICTION: Anlezark Cross Jones 

Defending discus champion Peter Elvy finally broke through the 60m barrier at the Sydney A-Series meet, after promising to do so for a number of seasons.  He looks the likely winner in Brisbane - though, as with the shot, some performers seem to suffer a big drop in distance with the pressure of competition.  It's hard to see Elvy making even the IAAF B standard - a tough 63.50m, but he should benefit from participation in the World Student Games in Korea.  Scott Martin, now sporting a shiny new head, looks to be Elvy's main opposition in Brisbane (unless Kiwi Ian Winchester starts) and it looks like a toss-up for third depending mainly on the start list.

PREDICTION: Elvy Martin Hicks

Andrew Currey just 'keeps on keeping on' and the veteran looks likely to annex a ninth national javelin title in Brisbane.  His recent series at the Sydney meet was consistently over 77.50m and this should  be too good for Australia's other javelin exponents, including Will Hamlyn-Harris, Nic Bennett and Andrew Hall.  Hamlyn-Harris and Currey both have thrown IAAF B qualifying marks, but Currey looks more likely to beat the 83.50 A standard that would guarantee him a berth in the Paris team.  Hamlyn-Harris and Bennett are likely to gain 'consolation' selection in the World Student Games team.  Now - if only Mr Currey could convince his wife (or any other javelin throwing policewomen he knows) to try for an Athens comeback... ;)

PREDICTION: Currey Hamlyn-Harris Hall

Stuart Rendell is as consistent as ever on the domestic series, having had a fine series of marks already in 2003.  His major problem will be achieving the tough IAAF A standard qualifying but, with a string of B marks just below the line, Australia's selectors couldn't really leave him out of the World Championships team, could they??  Aaron Fish, Australia's number two until he was thrown out of the Australian team in Darwin last year, has been conspicuously absent from competition this year leaving improvers Darren Billett (coached by former Commonwealth champion Sean Carlin) and Michael Gusbeth as Rendell's nearest competition.

PREDICTION: Rendell, Gusbeth, Billett

Other Events

PREDICTION: McEwen (Ferrier) Dudley Muzyczka

My Comments about Australia's likely World Championships team (published in August/September 2002).

Matt Shirvington, Patrick Johnson, Three 4x100m runners, Clinton Hill, Four 4x400m runners, Kris McCarthy, Youcef Abdi, Craig Mottram, Andrew Letherby, Dmitri Markov, Viktor Chistiakov, Paul Burgess, One Long Jumper, One Triple Jumper, Justin Anlezark, Stuart Rendell, Andrew Currey and Nathan Deakes.

23 athletes - and I would expect another three (or four) marathon runners to be added to allow Australian representation in the World Cup marathon teams event.

Others with a chance of stepping up in 2003 include Daniel Batman, Nick Hudson, Michael Hazel, Matt McEwen and any one of a half-dozen long-jumpers or distance runners.

Revised Comments (at 24 March 2003)

Injuries to Craig Mottram and Nathan Deakes have made their Paris participation uncertain, while new 200m star Ambrose Ezinwa's eligibility has not yet been settled.  

Daniel Batman's impressive return to the track has almost certainly confirmed his place in the individual 400m and enhanced Australia's chances of fielding a competitive 4x4 relay team.  Likewise, good sprinting by Johnson and Shirvington during this season will have increased the likelihood of an Australian short sprint relay team selected for Paris.  

The marathon boys have done very well so far in 2003 and a team of five or even more could well wear the green and gold in Paris.