The Toronto Blue Jays are one of the best teams in Spring Training this year, and though the pre-season record doesn’t mean quite a lot (KC was the best spring training team last year), it gives people a preview of the talent that the Jays have. Losing Shawn Green, Tony Fernandez, David Segui, and Graeme Lloyd in the offseason may look devastating on paper, but these holes are "fillable". Mondesi replaces Green in right field; Tony Batista moves over to third base as Alex Gonzalez seems to be healthy again; Brad Fullmer is a perfect DH and puts no pressure on Delgado to play first base. The Jays also added Pedro Borbon to replace Lloyd.
The lineup for the Blue Jays is very good and looks to duplicate or improve upon the 883 runs they scored last year (5th in league). The pitching staff is very unpredictable, and injuries may be a problem. But if everyone stays healthy, they Jays is a very competent team.
Pitching
It would not be a stretch to say that Toronto is a legitimate contender for the wild card spot in the AL. One can even suggest that the Jays may possibly have the best potential pitching staff in the division.
David Wells had an off year last year and still managed to post 17 wins and led the AL in IP. The trio of Chris Carpenter, Roy Halladay, and Kelvim Escobar who combined for a 31-25 record last year are excellent young pitchers waiting to break out. Carpenter who has the highest potential of the 3 should develop into a #1 starter, if he stays healthy. Halladay and Escobar are pitchers with blazing fastballs but needs to get more control. It would be possible that Wells wins 17-20 games again, while Carpenter, Halladay, and Escobar wins 15 (or more) apiece. Although the fifth spot in the rotation is a question mark as of the moment, I believe that Joey Hamilton will be an adequate fit once he recovers.
The Jay’s bullpen looks solid for the upcoming 2000 season. Paul Quantril is a solid reliever, and newly acquired Pedro Borbon is a nightmare to lefties. Billy Koch should once again close down effectively, but the knock against Koch is that he had a ERA of over 5 after the All-Star Game. The Jays must be careful not to tire out Koch early in the year. If the bullpen performs poorly, look for prospects John Sneed and Gary Glover to be called up.
Hitting
Shawn Green's production will be hard to replace, as the All-Star right fielder hit .309 with 42 HR and 123 RBI during the 1999 season. The Blue Jays are hoping the talented Mondesi will come close with a change of scenery in a much more hitter-friendly park. Playing in the somewhat-cavernous Dodger Stadium, Mondesi did set career highs in home runs and RBI (33 and 99) while stealing 36 bases. And he will be hitting in the middle of a lineup that, despite Green's departure, is still filled with talented hitters. Shannon Stewart (.304, 37 SB) is one of the top leadoff men in baseball and Toronto thinks Homer Bush (.320, 32 SB) will continue to improve upon his outstanding 1999 at 2B. Mondesi should have plenty of RBI opportunities batting third with Stewart and Bush will torch the basepaths. Mondesi will also have protection batting in front of Carlos Delgado (44 HR, 134 RBI) and a full year from Tony Batista (30 HR, 100). Newly acquired Brad Fullmer and Marty Cordova will probably platoon at the DH spot, batting 6th. If either Jose Cruz Jr or Vernon Wells establishes himself in center field, it will be an even more dangerous offense. The Jays hit .280 in 1999 and if everyone, at the minimum, repeats what they did, they could easily duplicate last year's output.
The Blue Jays have two young possibilities with tremendous potential at the center field position. One is Cruz, who started his Major League career by blasting 26 homers in only 395 at-bats with the Mariners and Blue Jays in 1997. But he hasn't really advanced from that point, hitting a combined 25 homers over the past two years and spending a lot of time traveling between the majors and triple-A. Cruz will be only 26 this year and he hit .355 in 31 at-bats in September and October after being recalled from the minors, so the Jays still have hope he can develop into a 30-30 star. The other possibility is Vernon Wells, one of the best prospects in the league. Wells, 21, hit .261 in an 88-at-bats during September last year when he was called up. He has been given the "five-tools" label by many scouts and he does have the potential to be a 30-30 kind of player. Not many teams have 2 potential 30-30 players fighting to bat 7th in the lineup.
Alex Gonzalez is reportedly fine after surgery. Gonzalez as most people know is a excellent fielder(better than Batista, and Fernandez), but used to be a liability at the plate (.306 OBP in last 3 years), but if his hitting picks up from where he left off from last year, he could be considered one of the best young shortstops in the AL.
Batting Lineup
| Player | '99 Stats | Comments | Grade | |
| S. Stewart | LF | .304 BA; 102 R; 37 SB | One of the best young leadoff men in the league. | A- |
| H. Bush | 2B | .320 BA; 32 SB; 26 2B | Was last year a fluke? Needs to improve BB/K ratio (21BB/82K) | B- |
| R. Mondesi | RF | .253 BA; 33 HR; 99 RBI; 36 SB | Excellent fielder; possible 40-40 man | A |
| C. Delgado | 1B | .272 BA; 44 HR; .571 SLG; 134 RBI | I’m hard pressed to find a better hitting first baseman. | A+ |
| T. Batista | 3B | .277 BA; 31 HR; 100 RBI; .519 SLG | Did anyone notice that he hit the second most HRs for a shortstop in '99 (behind A Rod, but ahead of Nomar and Jeter)? | A |
| B. Fullmer | DH | .277 BA; 34 2B; .464 SLG | Horrible fielder, good hitter (lots of doubles), perfect for DH. | B |
| D. Fletcher | C | .291 BA; 80 RBI; .485 SLG | Had best hitting year in career in 99, look for a steady decline from Fletcher. | C |
| J. Cruz Jr | CF | .241 BA; .433 SLG; 14 SB; | Excellent fielder; if Jays give this guy more at bats he may develop into something. | C |
| A. Gonzalez | SS | 38 G; .292 BA; .370 OBP | Another excellent fielder. Now only if he could hit. | C |
Pitching Staff
| Pitcher | '99 Stats | Comments | Grade |
| D. Wells | 17-10; 231 IP; 4.82 ERA; 7 CG | Still can pitch; led AL in IP in 99 while winning 17 games. | A- |
| C. Carpenter | 9-8; 4.38 ERA; 4 CG | Future #1 starter, if he can stay healthy. | B |
| R. Halladay | 8-7; 3.92 ERA | With 97 mph fastball and a nasty knuckle-curveball, has all the tools to be a good pitcher. | B |
| K. Escobar | 14-11; 5.69 ERA | Blazing 96 mph fastball; but needs to get the “wild thing” out of him. | C |
| ??? | ??? | In need of a 5th pitcher; Frank Castillo is the most likely candidate until Joey Hamilton recovers from injury. | ??? |
| B. Koch | 31 saves; 0-5; 3.39 ERA | His 95-100 mph fastball with movement will be nightmarish for hitters. | A |
| Pedro Borbon | 4.09 ERA; 70 games | Extremely effective against lefties (.156BA). | B- |
| John Frascatore | 7-1; 3.73 ERA | Solid reliever who will try to fill the hole left by Lloyd Graham. | B- |
| Paul Quantrill | 3-2; 3.33 ERA | Reliable reliever; workhorse averaging 80 appearances in 2 years before '99. | B- |
Prediction
92-70: 2nd in AL East, wins wild-card.
I may be reaching a little but I believe that the Blue Jays will win 92 games, and yes I do believe that 92 games is enough to win the wild card. I think that Mondesi will put up Green like numbers in the more hitter friendly Skydome. Also, I believe that Fullmer is a vast improvement at DH than the platoon last year. The pitching staff should be healthier this year than last, and expect the trio of Halladay, Carpenter, and Escobar to perform well, especially the first two.
Xiao Ma would love to talk baseball with anyone and could be reached at gmxlink@hotmail.com.
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