Making the Skies Friendly Again

April 1, 2003
By GREGORY J. RUMMO

CHICAGO -- United flight 645 taxies into position quickly at the end of the runway. It's early morning-rush hour at Newark airport. In the past, we would be number ten or fifteen for departure. But in the midst of a war with Iraq and an orange terror alert, few are in the mood for flying.

For travelers like me who continue to fly the friendly skies despite the perceived risks, this is actually a benefit. Fewer flyers--10 percent less according to industry estimates since the war began--translates into shorter lines at the airport, less crowding on the planes and reduced air traffic overall making for more on-time departures and arrivals.

But the lingering fear of flying, heightened by the war in Iraq and continuing concerns over terrorism here in the US is killing an industry that has been in a swoon since images of jets flying through towers of glass and steel put a damper on air travel plans for many Americans 18 months ago.

United, the second-largest carrier, which filed for protection under bankruptcy earlier this year, lost $367 million in February on the heels of losing $382 million in January.

Some analysts believe United will not be able to emerge from chapter 11 and will be forced to liquidate.

The mood among the United employees with whom I spoke included a wide range of emotions. Some were optimistic, some ambivalent, others frustrated and upset.
The ticket agent who checked us in at the largely empty counter was hopeful that UAL's chief executive, Glenn Tilton would be able to turn things around. "He was successful at Texaco, hopefully he'll be able to turn things around for us too."

Others were more fatalistic.

"What do I know?" A gate agent exclaimed, throwing his arms up in the air in a way reminiscent of Jackie Gleason playing Ralph Cramden in the Honeymooners. "It's a job-that's all. I come to work, I do my job, I go home."

A flight attendant echoed this sentiment, "I only know what they tell us." But then she offered that she hoped management would find a way to restructure its business plan. "I feel bad for all of the people who were laid off," she said.

On March 27, the Wall Street Journal reported that thousands of United employees have been put on unpaid leave. "A prolonged war or another terrorism attack could cause the airline to simply run out of money," the article said.

A pilot with whom I spoke was angry and frustrated. This is understandable considering the fact that the airline is part-owned by the pilots through an employee stock ownership program or ESOP.

"Management has no business plan. There's been no attempt to tap into the leisure market," he told me. As the carrier's woes have deepened, he's slowly watched his retirement nest egg, largely invested in United stock shrivel away to nothing. United stock, a high flyer during the heady days of healthier times in the airline industry, is now selling for less than $1 per share.

It's not just UAL that's hit turbulence. American Airlines is facing possible bankruptcy in the absence of labor concessions (Although this was recently avoided). And foreign carriers such as British Airways, Air France and Japan Air Lines have suspended some flights due to weak demand.

The captain has just announced we're 90 miles south of Chicago's O'Hare airport. "We'll be arriving at gate C5 well ahead of schedule," he says in that calm, steeled voice so characteristic of airline pilots.

It's great news for us--we'll easily catch our connecting flight to Beijing.
But I'm left wondering what the solution for the survival of the airline industry is.

Short term, the government is considering adding several billion dollars of aid in an Iraq war supplemental spending bill. If we're going to pay to rebuild Iraq, we may as well throw some of that money around here in our own country. Charity does, after all, begin at home.

A short war in Iraq with an uninterrupted flow of oil and crude oil prices dropping will help reduce the enormous cost of fuel required to keep America's fleet of commercial airliners in the air. Enacting the president's tax cut would bolster the economy, add more jobs and ultimately create a larger demand for business travel.

But the long term solution for the airline industry's health is going to take more than throwing money at the problem. It will take convincing a skeptical American public that it's safe to fly again, a problem that doesn't look it will be solved any time soon. n

Gregory J. Rummo is a syndicated columnist. Read all of his columns on his homepage, www.GregRummo.com. E-Mail Rummo at  GregoryJRummo@aol.com