TALK (active play since April-02):
Latest TALK Daily Chart (showing recent 'channel') (8/1/02)
TALK Daily Chart Marked Up by Me (7/22/02)
TALK Daily Chart Marked Up by Me (7/7/02)
PVN Daily Chart (9/4/02)
PVN (watching closely for entry as of Aug 5, 02):
PVN just formed an 'island reversal' after dropping from the mid 8's to as low as 2.50 and returning above the previous gap at just under 4. It is now in the process of returning to the gap and looks poised to start rallying an day, in fact today (Aug 5th) looks like it may have reached the bottom on this pull back looking at the intraday action. I will be looking over the next couple of days for evidence of a rally starting and very likely enter the trade on the long side with a short term target of 8. Here is the chart as of Aug 2nd: (see the island reversal example below)
PVN Daily Chart Showing 'Island Reversal' Setup (8/2/02)
These are my favorite recent stock charts that demonstrate complete trades of what I am trying to reproduce!
CCK
STEC
SIMG
Island reversals are short term reversal signals that are composed of an exhaustion gap (last gasp of bullishness or bearishness of a move), a relatively tight trading range of prices (or just one day), followed by a breakaway gap back across the the rough area that was the original exhaustion gap. Island reversals are quite reliable in indicating short term reversal of trend. And in general, the move that preceeded the island reversal should be retraced fairly quickly following the formation of the island reversal. Island reversals in themselves are not long term top or bottom formations, just shorter term reversals, although often they will appear at longer term tops and bottoms.
RD Island Reversal Example:
In searching for some examples of island reversals, I stumbled upon RD and it was indeed an incredible example. In the past two years, RD has conservatively shown 14 significant island reversals. By my assessment, all 14 (100%), did predict the short term direction properly, and 64% achieved the expected magnitude of move completely retracing the prior move, I would estimate that none of them would have resulted in a loss. Of course this is not a complete statistical study but it shows how important island reversals can be. This includes an increadible island reversal in Sept of 2001 that marked a key bottom for RD. Here is the chart showing all the islands: RD island reversal chart
