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By:
Zulfiqar Halepoto
With every passing day,the controversy over the construction of the
newreservoirs on Indus is gaining momentum and despite the claims of
President of Pakistan to have settled the dispute of the Greater Thal Canal
(GTC) and the Kalabagh Dam (KBD) , the opposition in Sindh and other small
provinces has decided to turn the anti-GTC and KBD movement in to a
"regime-change movement".
Both the technical and the parliamentary committees on water resources
havefailed to even create an impression that these committees are made for
theresolution of water conflict.
With the already set agenda on the plate, it seems, these committees
havenothing new to offer to small provinces. The lack of coordination
between the
committees of Senator Nisar Memon and A.N.G Abbasi has generated a theory
sayingthat there are differences of opinion and gaps in the perceptions of
the"political" and the "technical" minds appointed for the purpose.
The decision of the parliamentary committee to appoint local firms/consultantsfor
the study of down stream Kotri to address the issue of sea intrusion and
other environmental damages has further aggravated Sindh's concern as it was
called a decision in violation of the CCI decisions and the 1991 Accord.
Constitutional position: The Section 7 of the 1991 accord says; "The need
for certain minimum escapages to sea, below Kotri, to check sea intrusion
was recognized.
Sindh held the view that the optimum level was 10 million acre feet (maf),
which was discussed at length, while other studies indicated lower/higher
figures. It was, therefore, decided further that studies be undertaken to
establish the minimal escapage needs down stream Kotri".
On the other hand, two more government documents, '10-years Perspective
Development Plans 2001-11' and the '3-years Development Programme 2001-4,",
the quantity of 10 maf has been recognized till the studies on the subject
are completed. This study had to be completed within one year as directed by
the CCI in its meeting held on September 16th, 1991, but it has not yet been
started due to Punjab that wants one-line terms of reference (TOR).
On October 25th, 2003, during the meeting with the water and irrigation
experts,technocrats, the President directed that the study must be carried
out withoutany delay and in the mean time 10 maf be ear-marked for the
escapages below Kotri.
Now after 13 years, the government has decided to carry on a study by
connecting it with the study of three rivers sold out to India. Sindh
maintains that the decision was illegal and against the spirit of 1991
accord.
Myth of 35 maf: The federal government, Punjab and Wapda are of the opinion
that a huge quantity of about 35 maf is flowing into sea on an average which
can be utilized by building new dams, canals and storages, like the Greater
Thal Canal, Kalabagh, Bhasha and Scardu dams. The important thing to
remember in this context is that the water going into the sea also includes:
* unutilised part of the existing allocations/ commitments under the Water
Accord (12 maf);
* flow from eastern rivers allocated to India for its exclusive use (8.7 maf);
* unutilised portion of India's entitlement on western river (4.8 maf);
* 10 maf provisionally earmarked in the Water Accord, 1991, for outflow to
sea;
* 20.42 being an average flow of the Kabul River share for the period from
1979-80 up to 2002-2003, with minimum 11.17 maf and maximum 34.24 maf. ( The
President has indicated that this figure as 8 maf as possibly used by
Kabul);
* 3 maf for Mangla raising;
* 2.24 allocation sanctioned by Ecnec for LBOD project.
After accounting for all these factors, there remains no surplus water for
construction of any large, conventional or carry-over dam on Indus. On the
contrary, there is a severe deficit of water which is around 14 maf.
The quantity of outflow to sea has been progressively reduced, particularly
after construction of barrages, dams and link canals following the signing
of Indus Water Treaty, 1960.
The actual outflow to sea at the time of independence was about 100 maf,
which has been reduced to 36 maf. For the last four years it has been less
than two maf.
An official report says that fresh water flow of Indus River has been
reduced from 150 million acre feet (maf) to 0.72 maf last year. Experts say
that there has been virtually no sweet water flow in the sea last year,
which signals an acceleration in the pace of the devastating phenomenon in
the coastal areas of the province. The duration of the flow has also been
reduced to less than two months and that too during the high flood years.
Even this quantity is dwindling further as the unutilised allocations are
being harnessed.
Under the provisions of the Water Accord, 1991, 10 maf has been
provisionally earmarked for outflow to sea pending further studies to be
undertaken to establish the needs of minimum escapages down stream Kotri.
However, no study has been initiated even after 13 years of signing the
accord due to objections raised by Punjab.
However, the IUCN, an international organization based in Pakistan, has
worked out the annual requirements for the outflow to sea for environmental
sustenance to be 27 maf.
The quantity of even 10 maf provisionally allocated under the accord is
available only for 24 out of 72 years as calculated under the title, 'Kharif
availability'.
Thus it is clear that the required quantity of water for the substance of
the environment cannot become available under the circumstances. It is not
possible
that this position can be improved by denying the allocations/commitments of
the operational projects or by leaving the storages unfilled.
However, it is important that at least further deterioration in the
ecological conditions must be prevented. The best that can be done to save
the environment
from complete devastation is to plan future projects so that the minimum
required discharge of 300,000 cusecs is available for outflow to sea at
least for as much time as it is available, after meeting the current Kharif
demand.
The whole of Sindh in general and Indus Delta in particular has suffered
because of the Indus Basin Treaty and the construction of Tarbela Dam and
other barrages.
In view of these facts, Sindh is justified to demand compensation for the
out-of proportion damage caused to it, as a consequence of the Indus Treaty
and its follow-up actions. Time has come that justice should be done to
Sindh.
Ecological considerations: Under para 7 of the water accord 1991 the need
for certain minimum esca pages to sea down stream Kotri to check sea
intrusion was recognized.
A tentative figure of 10 MAF has been indicated in the accord pending
further studies to establish minimal escapages down stream Kotri. The
documents "Ten
Years Perspective Development Plan 2001-11 & Three Years Development
Programme 2001-4" issued by the Planning Commission indicates a figure of 10
maf to be earmarked before any future development schemes/projects can be
considered.
CCI decision: Recently the parliamentary committee on water resources has
decided to conduct three studies on the subject including the environmental
study related to down stream Kotri. This is a clear and blatant violation of
CCI decision.
The parliamentary committee is a recommendatory body, which can not take
decision against the express decision/ directives of the CCI. Moreover the
same item of down stream Kotri also falls within the purview of Technical
Committee on water resources. As per the directives of the president both
committees have to work in close coordination.
The decision of the parliamentary committee without consulting the technical
committee is a violation of the President's directives. The studies are
being let out to some local consultants, with shady track record, though the
CCI directive/decision has asked for the appointment of "international panel
of experts." |
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