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Lula's Brazil: a balance sheet
The following article is from the Oct. 2 issue of Rouge, the weekly
newspaper of Socialist Action’s French sister organization, the Ligue
Commmuniste Revolutionnaire. The article seeks to sum up the experience
of
six months of the Workers Party government in Brazil.
By DANIEL BENSAID
Almost a year has gone by since Lula’s victory in the 2002 Brazilian
presidential election. While the overwhelming majority of the
population
still thinks that this government is theirs, it is seeing its policies
less
and less as theirs.
In the 2002 presidential campaign, through his “Letter to All
Brazilians,”
Lula gave guarantees to reassure the markets, the International
Monetary
Fund (IMF), and the United States. When he formed his new government,
these
commitments were confirmed by the appointment of the former director of
the
Bank of Boston as head of the central bank and by the appointment to
the
ministries of economics and finance of a team that was more neoliberal
than
social.
The official line is clear. The first step is to get a grip on
inflation and
reassure the markets. Only then, according to Lula’s involuntarily
humorous
formula, “the growth performance will begin.”
In the meantime, the Brazilian economy is dying on the vine. The
proclaimed
“transition” has been put off indefinitely. Reversing Lula’s campaign
slogan, the sociologist Chico de Oliveira considers already that “fear
is
triumphing over hope.”
In order to attract foreign investment, the government has committed
itself
to paying the service on the debt cash on the barrelhead. It has set
astronomical interest rates (over 26 percent). It is sticking to the
unreasonable objective of achieving a 4.5 budget surplus, at the
expense of
social services and public investments but also of private investment.
As a result investment spending dropped by 12 percent just in the first
half
year. Unemployment is climbing, and the jobs situation in the Sao Paulo
region has not been so bad since 1995.
The “reform” of the retirement benefits system adopted by the
parliament in
August, under the pretext of combating privilege, fits in faithfully
with
the demands of the World Bank and follows the model being applied in
several
countries. It extends by seven years the amount of time that civil
servants
have to pay into the pension fund in order to collect benefits. This
amounts
to a major cut in retirement benefits for most workers, especially for
women, because of interruptions in their work life for family reasons.
The new law also opens the way for so-called public pension funds, the
administration of which will be turned over to private banks. Partial
privatizations of public services are also being considered.
“Goodby Mister da Silva! Lula come back!”
The first visible consequences of this disastrous course are doubly
negative. In the first place, there is the “show” of announced reforms
breaking down. The “Zero Hunger” campaign should have been incorporated
into
an overall social project including fiscal reform, an employment
policy, and
the development of public services. For lack of means, it is being
reduced
to a public charity campaign with little effect.
Likewise, the credits allotted to agrarian reform, which the government
is
still proclaiming is a priority, are pathetic. Moreover, signs of
disillusionment and discontent are multiplying in the social movements.
This can be seen first of all among civil servants, who were the
victims of
the pension reform. They mobilized massively in July and August and
invaded
the parliament in order to protest during the debate on the bill.
However, government workers are an important component of the PT vote
in the
big cities. And if the government continues its present course the 2004
municipal elections could result in punishment for the party.
On May 1, a series of personalities (including the former bishop of Sao
Paulo, figures associated with liberation theology, and the singer
Chico
Buarque) sent a public letter to the government asking it to state its
position on the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), which would
create a
big Latin American market dominated by the United States.
On June 10, a statement of alarm was published signed by a numerous
prestigious intellectuals, most of them members or sympathizers of the
PT.
On May 30, 30 out of the 90 deputies in the PT parliamentary faction
signed
a document criticizing the central bank’s monetary policy. On June 12,
several hundred well-known economists published a critique of the
economic
policy being pursued by the government.
At the beginning of June, the congress of the United Confederation of
Workers (the CUT, with 80 percent of the 2700 congress delegates
belonging
to the PT or other parties in the government coalition) reflected the
worries of many trade-union leaders. On the question of the pension
reform,
the CUT congress proposed three amendments, which were not included in
the
bill.
The congress of the National Union of Students also marked an advance
of
critical left currents. Land occupations have tripled since the
beginning of
the year, and clashes are multiplying daily the members of the landless
movement (the MST) and the landowners” “rural militias.”*
There are more and more numerous criticisms of the government but
Lula’s
approval rating remains at a peak in the polls, around 80 percent. A
large
part of the working people considers this government as its own but
supports
its policy less and less. Some signs that appeared in the public
workers’
demonstrations summed up it up well: “Goodbye Mister da Silva, Lula
come
back!”
The government’s social and economic policy represents a fundamental
choice.
There will therefore be no significant change in orientation without
crises
and breaks in the PT or in the government.
The critical “Group of the 30” divided on the vote on the retirement
system.
Twenty-four resigned themselves to vote for it out of “discipline.”
Seven
abstained in the final vote, saying that they did not want to vote
either
against their party or against their conscience.
Four, including our comrade, Walter Pinheiro, a deputy from Bahia,
voted
against it. Three of them are in the process of being expelled and are
considering joining the PSTU [United Socialist Workers Party, which ran
its
own candidate against Lula]. Our comrade, Senator Heloisa Helena is
also the
target of an expulsion procedure.
A bossa nova version of Blairism
The meaning of this disciplinary offensive, which goes against the
pluralism that has given richness to the PT, is clear. The party has to
chose between between the political representative and a transmission
belt
for the government’s measures. What is at stake is the future of a
“class-struggle” party, which was the reflection of a massive
radicalization
of social struggles since the 1970s.
Its transformation into a “new PT,” a sort of “third way,” a bossa nova
version of Blairism, will not be accomplished in the coming months
without
strong resistance from the historic PT. In fact, the government’s
policy is
a gross violation of discipline with respect to the resolutions of the
last
congress of the PT, held in December 2001.
The Brazilian question will therefore occupy a central place in the
debates
of the left. This is true first of all in Latin America. If, in the
subcontinent’s most powerful country, a left government can do no
better
than to submit to the demands of the IMF and the World Bank, what
conclusions should the people’s movements in Ecuador, Bolivia, and
Uruguay
draw?
It is possible, however, to oppose the international creditors and the
FTAA
projects with a united front of debtor countries, along with Argentina
and
Venezuela. Internationally, the bankrupt Social Democracy is taking the
“Lula” experience as its banner, counterposing the turtle’s pace and
broad
alliances of the “Brazilian model” to the precipitate advance of the
Chilean
Unidad Popular, which is supposed to have facilitated or provoked
Pinochet’s
coup d’etat.
Without a rapid and radical change in Brazil, there is going to be a
very
brutal disillusionment.
* A coordinating committee formed in August by various movements (the
World
Women’s March, the MST, the CUT, the student movement, associations of
unemployed and homeless, various Catholic unions and movements as
artists
and intellectuals). It worked out alternative proposals to the three
reforms
announced by the government—social security, taxes, and education.
Already
involved in a campaign against the FTAA, this coordinating committee
decided
to launch a national initiative against unemployment and for the right
to a
job.
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