The following are the results of a Market Watch poll [Market Watch was formed by a group of former Gallup employees] of a representative sample of 590 adult Israelis carried out the week of 7 June. Statistical error +/- 4.5 percentage points:
Are you satisfied with the general performance of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon?
Are you satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the socio-economic area?
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says that negotiations should not be carried out with the Palestinian Authority as long as Arafat is in power. Others argue however that as long as Arafat is the leader of the Palestinians Israel should also talk with him. Which do you agree more with?
In the near future will there be more acts of terror?
[IMRA: Once again, Ma'ariv insists on labeling a proposal that does not include right of return as being the "Saudi initiative" even though the Saudis have said that their initiative includes 194 - right of return. As the Smith Poll commission by IMRA-ZOA demonstrates, the results would also change dramatically if the pollsters mentioned that "return of all the territories" includes the Golan, Jordan Rift Valley and the Old City of Jerusalem.]
There are today two main plans for unilateral separation from the Palestinia ns. One plan proposes setting up a separating security fence while evacuating all the settlements in Gaza and in addition evacuating some 40 - 50 settlements in Judea and Samaria, while some 80% of the settlers remain in settlement blocs under Israeli control. The second program proposes setting up a separating security fence while all the settlements in Judea, Samaria and Gaza remain and the IDF defends each and every settlement. Which of the two programs do you support more?
5While in principle Israelis are divided on a proposal to return to the 1967 borders for a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the Arab states, in fact, when the detailed issues are listed, the Israeli public becomes strongly opposed to such an agreement. This can be discerned from a public opinion survey conducted by Smith Research among a representative telephone sample of 501 voting-age Israelis from May 31 June 3. The margin of error in the survey was 4.5 percent.
It should be noted that the number of Israeli Arabs was in proportion to the voting-age population. Therefore, results regarding Israeli Arabs can only be regarded as general indicators of trends among them.
When asked, "In principle, are you for or against the proposal that Israel return to the 1967 borders in return for a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the Arab countries?" 45.7% were in favor, while 50.4% were opposed, with the remaining 3.9% giving no opinion. However, among Jews, only 40% supported the proposal and 56% were opposed which was in strong contrast with Israeli Arabs who nearly all supported it.
However, when the more specific question was asked: "Are you for or against the proposal that Israel return to the 1967 borders including giving up the Golan Heights, Jordan Valley, the Old City of Jerusalem in return for a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the Arab countries?" only 16% of Jews agreed while nearly 80% rejected the proposal a very sharp decline indeed.
When a very detailed proposal was presented, "Are you for or against the proposal that Israel return to the 1967 borders including giving up the Golan Heights, Jordan Valley, the Old City of Jerusalem, agreeing to a Palestinian state, and allowing Palestinians who wish to return to Israel instead of receiving financial compensation in return for a peace agreement with the Palestinians and the Arab countries?" there was virtually no support among Jews, a mere 4%. Even a sizable portion of Israeli Arabs saw great difficulties in an open-ended Palestinian right of return.
Asked about their opinion on setting up a Palestinian state, half of the Jews (50%) approved (with 25% choosing to support it because it could not be prevented), as against 47% who opposed it (including 21% who opposed it even though they felt it was inevitable).
In answer to another question, if it were possible to prevent the setting up of a Palestinian state, what would be their stand, 29% replied they would still support the Palestinian state, while 66% said they would oppose a Palestinian state in those circumstances.
There were great differences in the proposals among Israeli Jews on religious and political grounds. Favoring a full withdrawal to 1967 lines were 56% of secular Jews, 31% of traditional Jews, and only 9% of Orthodox/haredi Jews. People who defined themselves as leftist gave 83% support to the proposal, 51% of those who defined themselves as in the center, and only 19% of those on the right.
To the proposal that specifically mentioned the Golan Heights, Jordan Valley and Old City of Jerusalem, the support for returning to the 1967 borders for peace fell drastically among the secular to 22%, the traditional to 11%, and the Orthodox/haredi to 6%. On the left, only 37% supported the specific option, 16% in the center, and only 6% on the right.
The third proposal, bringing in the full right of return to Palestinians, was universally rejected by all Jewish groups, though supported by a majority of Israeli Arabs. In general, the small share in the sample of Israeli Arabs strongly supported most of the proposals for returning to the 1967 borders for peace by percentages from 60% to 95%.
-30-A poll was conducted by the PCPO and prepared by President Dr. Nabil Kukali included a random sample of 1006 Palestinian adults, 18 years and older, from the West Bank including East Jerusalem. The poll reveals that (50.8%) of the Palestinians believe that changing the Palestinian government and forming a new government is highly necessary, while (20.7%) believe it is somewhat necessary, (9.4%) somewhat unnecessary, (8.6%) absolutely unnecessary, and (10.5%) express no opinion.
However, (30.8%) of the Palestinians evaluate the PA's performance as very bad, while (23.4%) evaluate it is poor, (17.2%) good, (5.1%) very good, (16.7%) not good and not bad, and (6.8%) are noncommittal. When asked "In the first meeting that the Palestinian leadership held on May 3, 2002, a political reformation plan was placed. Do you think that the leadership will or not comply with this plan?" a plurality (51.5%) believes that the Palestinian leadership will not comply by the plan, while (34.4%) believe it will comply by it, and (14.1%) express no opinion.
In addition, (42.0%) of the Palestinians believe that President Arafat's call for political reformation from within institutions of the PA was only a response to an American and Israeli demand, while (28.3%) believe it is a Palestinian, American, and Israeli demand, (20.5%) a Palestinian demand, and (9.2%) are noncommittal.
A majority (45.3%) of the Palestinians believes that Arafat's call for reformation was to get out of a plight, while (17.7%) believes that the call came out of a conviction for change and reformation, (26.5%) believes that it came out to get out of a plight as well as a conviction, and (10.5%) express no opinion.
A considerable majority (51.9%) of the Palestinians believe that the resignation of the Palestinian Minister for parliamentary affairs Nabil Amro was a step in the right direction, while (28.6%) of the Palestinians believe it was a wrong and hasty decision, and (19.5%) express no opinion.
When asked "Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat disagree, or strongly disagree that it is necessary to restructure the hierarchy of the PA in order to give a broader margin of democracy"? (45.7%) say they strongly agree, while (23.9%) say they somewhat agree, (10.5%) somewhat disagree, (6.1%) strongly disagree, and (13.8%) express no opinion.
However, (36.6%) of the Palestinians support the call of the European foreign policy coordinator, Mr. Javier Solana, on the PA to be more transparent, accountable, and democratic, while (30.4%) somewhat support, (8.9%) somewhat oppose, (8.6%) strongly oppose, and (15.5%) refrain from answering this question.
Less than one-third (29.4%) of the Palestinians strongly support the call of some Gulf newspapers on President Arafat to merge the different security services in one structure, separate security work from political work, restore security as well as other sorts of reformation, while (34.5%) somewhat support, (12.7%) somewhat oppose, (8.7%) strongly oppose, and (14.7%) are noncommittal.
When asked "In the light of the bloody recent events that included the siege of Arafat's compound in Ramallah, and the wide-scale Israeli incursion into the Palestinian territories, do you believe that differences and divisions among Palestinians will take place in the future that will undermine the democratic process?" a majority (46.7%) gives a positive answer while (35.5%) give a negative answer, and (17.8%) say "do not know".
In response to the questions related to the PA's function in the future, the results was as follows:
1. The PA will exert utmost efforts for applying democratic principles that will enable citizens to participate in the decision making process. Answers were as follows: (17.8%) strongly agree, (33.8%) somewhat agree, (23.1%) somewhat disagree, (20.0%) strongly disagree, (5.3%) "no opinion".
2. Mutual trust between the PA in its current structure and citizens will remain high. Answers were as follows: (9.4%) strongly agree, (25.0%) somewhat agree, (31.8%) somewhat disagree, (29.8%( strongly disagree, (4.0%) "no opinion".
3. I believe in current PA officials and their objectivity in the decision making process. Answers were as follows: (5.5%) strongly agree, (17.6%) somewhat agree, (29.0%) somewhat disagree, (41.5%) strongly disagree, (6.4%) "No opinion".
4. The PA will guarantee freedom of expression and that people will be free to criticize it. Answers were as follows: (11.7%) strongly agree, (27.9%) somewhat agree, (30.6%) somewhat disagree, (25.0%) strongly disagree, (4.8%) "No opinion".
5. The PA will respect independency of the judiciary system, and will not interfere in courts' performance. Answers were as follows: (11.1%) strongly agree, (29.3%) somewhat agree, (30.7%) somewhat disagree, (21.6%) strongly disagree, (7.3%) "No opinion".
6. The PA will listen to suggestions and complaints of the Palestinian citizens. Answers were as follows: (11.8%) strongly agree, (33.2%) somewhat agree, (27.9%) somewhat disagree, (21.0%) strongly disagree, (6.1%) "No opinion".
7. The PA will very efficiently manage financial resources. Answers were as follows: (10.9%) strongly agree, (23.3%) somewhat agree, (31.5%) somewhat disagree, (29.8%) strongly disagree, (4.5%) "No opinion".
8. Decision making in the PA will remain in the hands of a limited number of few individuals. Answers were as follows: (27.2%) strongly agree, (25.3%) somewhat agree, (23.5%) somewhat disagree, (17.1%) strongly disagree, (6.9%) "No opinion".
9. Citizens of the Palestinian territories will be able to freely express their views. Answers were as follows: (10.5%) strongly agree, (29.3%) somewhat agree, (32.0%) somewhat disagree, (22.0%) strongly disagree, (5.9%) "No opinion".
10. The PA will hold ministers and high ranking officials that are accountable for infringing laws. Answers were as follows: (13.0%) strongly agree, (17.7%) somewhat agree, (28.2%) somewhat disagree, (35.5%) strongly disagree, (5.6%) "No opinion".
11. The PA will respect individuals' right for free expression even if their opinion opposed that of the PA. Answers were as follows: (12.7%) strongly agree, (26.9%) somewhat agree, (28.5%) somewhat disagree, (26.7%) strongly disagree, (5.2%) "No opinion".
12. The PA will promote democracy and human rights. Answers were as follows: (12.5%) strongly agree, (29.1%) somewhat agree, (28.3%) somewhat disagree, (22.9%) strongly disagree, (7.2%) "No opinion".
13. The PA will provide security and order in the Palestinian territories. Answers were as follows: (20.5%) strongly agree, (33.1%) somewhat agree, (23.1%) somewhat disagree, (18.6%) strongly disagree, (4.7%) "No opinion".
14. The PA's violation of freedom of press and media will undermine their credibility. Answers were as follows: (22.3%) strongly agree, (38.4%) somewhat agree, (22.2%) somewhat disagree, (12.6%) strongly disagree, (4.4%) "No opinion".
15. The PA will keep its policy of personal and partisan loyalty as well as nepotism in the appointment of people. Answers were as follows: (30.7%) strongly agree, (26.3%) somewhat agree, (22.4%) somewhat disagree, (15.0%) strongly disagree, (5.6%) "No opinion".
16. The PA will allow peaceful empowerment to another party if potential election results gave it the majority of votes. Answers were as follows: (10.3%) strongly agree, (22.6%) somewhat agree, (28.1%) somewhat disagree, (31.3%) strongly disagree, (7.7%) "No opinion".
17. The PA will benefit from past experience to handle next stage. Answers were as follows: (16.8%) strongly agree, (34.4%) somewhat agree, (21.6%) somewhat disagree, (15.8%) strongly disagree, (11.4%) "No opinion".
A considerable majority (44.9%) of the Palestinians believes that the PA's administration of the Palestinian territories will lead the country in the wrong direction, while (35.5%) believe that it will lead in the right direction, and (19.6%) express no opinion.
Also the PA's management of foreign support will have a negative impact on potential additional support, while (25.1%) believes it will have a positive impact, (24.0%) will have neither negative nor positive impact, and (7.8%) express no opinion.
When asked, "in time and with the restructuring of the PA's hierarchy and services, do you believe that corruption will increase or decrease?" (31.1%) believe corruption will increase, while (29.8%) believe it will decrease, (28.7%) will remain the same, and (10.4%) respond "do not know".
When asked " to what degree do you believe in the significance of the Civil Society Organizations (CSO's) role in the Palestinian territories in upgrading and supervising the performance of the PA"? (40.8%) believe it is highly significant, while (30.8%) believe it is somewhat significant, (13.5%) somewhat insignificant, (4.8%) absolutely insignificant, and (10.1%) express no opinion.
A substantial majority (58.3%) supports holding legislative elections while (25.5%) support holding them at a later stage, and (16.2%) refrain from answering.
A plurality (50.9%) supports holding Presidential elections for the PA soon, while (34.6%) support a postponement of such elections to a later stage, and (14.5%) are noncommittal.
When asked "Please express degree of support to Yasser Arafat"? (17.4%) strongly support, while (29.5%) somewhat support, (14.7%) somewhat oppose, and (11.8%) respond "no opinion".
When asked "Sometimes a contradiction occurs between freedom of media and expression on one side and what the PA believes it is a national interest. In such a case, which of the following do you support?" a substantial majority (61.5%) are for lawful freedom of media and expression, while (23.5%) are in favor of what the PA believes to be a national interest, and (15.0%) respond "no opinion".
Also a substantial majority (63.1%) of the Palestinians say they trust the Palestinian press, while (32.1%) say do not trust the Palestinian media, and (4.8%) express no opinion.
A plurality (47.7%) express dissatisfaction with the standing of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian territories, whereas (14.5%) express satisfaction, (32.0%) express neither satisfaction nor dissatisfaction, and (5.8%) express "no opinion".
In addition (44.0%) express high concern for democracy and human rights, while (30.6%) express somewhat concern, (7.3%) somewhat unconcern, (9.8%) absolute unconcern, and (8.3%) express no opinion.
A plurality (53.4%) of the Palestinians say they trust Palestinian courts, while (42.0%) say they do not trust them, and (4.6%) refrain from answering this question.
However, (40.3%) say they have confidence in the Palestinian police, while (55.3%) say the opposite, and (4.4%) express no opinion.
Also, (29.8%) say they trust other Palestinian security services (i.e. preventive security, intelligence.etc), while a substantial majority (65.0%) says the opposite, and (5.2%) express no opinion.
Also, (42.7%) say they have confidence in the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC), while a higher proportion (51.1%) say the opposite, and (6.2%) express no opinion.
President of the PCPO, Dr. Nabil Kukali, stated that the poll was carried out May 24 - 30, 2002, and the average age of the respondents was (31.64) years. Dr. Kukali added that the margin of error was (+/-3.08) percent points.
The Director of Public Relations at the PCPO, Dr. Walid Shomaly, expressed thanks to "Tamkeen Project" for funding the poll. He added that the non-response rate, percentage of male and female respondents were (1%), (51.5%), and (48.5%) respectively. Dr. Shomaly pointed out to the fact that the respondents' average years of schooling was (12.38) and that the percentages of married, single, and other respondents were (55.3%), (39.4%), and (5.3%) respectively.
Contact Persons: Dr. Nabil Kukali, Dr. Walid ShomalyParallel to the Israeli survey conducted by Smith Research on public opinion concerning the peace process, Independent Media Review and Analysis also commissioned a survey of public opinion in the West Bank and Gaza strip on May 22-28, 2002 of a representative sample of 1,181 adults. It was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion.
The fundamental question asked was the following: "Would you support the Saudi peace plan calling for the establishment of full normal relations and full peace between Israel and the Arab states, if the plan does not include the right of return to refugees within the borders of Israel?" The answer was that only 24.1% of those questioned agreed to this proposition, while 62.4% opposed it, with the remaining 12.3% not expressing an opinion.
The key element of the proposal was to test the extent to which Palestinians were ready to accept a peace which specifically did not include the right of return of refugees.
This was decisively turned down by the Palestinian sample, though a certain minority was ready to accept it. It should be noted that in the Israeli Jewish sample, a detailed list of specific conditions which included the right of return for Palestinian refugees was turned down almost unanimously.
This demonstrates the enormous differences between Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs, especially regarding the rights of Palestinian refugees. Another question asked of the Palestinian Arab sample was: "If the Palestinian Authority orders Fatah Tanzim and other organizations indirectly linked to the PA's authority to hand over their weapons for confiscation or destruction, what would you believe the Fatah Tanzim and other organizations should do?" In all, 37.8% thought they should do nothing, 50.1% that they should hide their weapons, and only 12.1 % that they should hand in their weapons.
These results can be interpreted in a number of ways, including determination to continue the struggle against Israel, refusing to be coerced by Israel, defiance of the leadership of the PA or a simple evaluation of the scene in their localities; or they could be a combination of these views. But they do indicate very strong intentions of continued struggle against Israel even in defiance of the Palestinian Authority.
The following are the results of polls commissioned by Independent Media Review and Analysis and the Zionist Organization of America.
Part 2 - Survey by Smith of Israelis
Public opinion survey conducted by Smith Research among a representative telephone sample of 501 voting-age Israelis (including Israeli Arabs) from May 31 June 3. The margin of error in the survey was 4.5 percent.
1. Do you support the proposal that Israel withdraw to the pre-Six Day War lines and agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state in return for peace with the Palestinians and the Arab states?
2. Do you support the proposal that Israel withdraw to the pre-Six Day War lines - including from all of the Golan, Jordan Rift Valley, and the Old City of Jerusalem, and agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state in return for peace with the Palestinians and the Arab states?
3. Do you support the proposal that Israel withdraw to the pre-Six Day War lines - including from all of the Golan, Jordan Rift Valley, and the Old City of Jerusalem and allow Palestinian refugees the right of return to Israel instead of receiving monetary compensation - in return for peace with the Palestinians and the Arab states?
4. Which is most acceptable to you with regards to the establishment of a Palestinian state?
6. In your opinion, to the extent that another war takes place, the fact that Israel supported the establishment of a Palestinian state would help it to receive the support of the USA in the war?
Public opinion survey conducted Palestinian Center for Public Opinion under the supervision of its president, Dr. Nabil Kukali in a face-to-face poll of a representative sample of 1181 Palestinians adults, 18 years and older, in the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank including eastern Jerusalem carried out May 22-28, 2002. The margin of error in the survey was 2.85 percent.
1. Would you support the Saudi peace plan calling for the establishment of two states, Palestine and Israeli, an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders, and the establishment of full normal relations and full peace between Israel and the Arab states if the plan does not include the right of return of refugees to within the borders of Israel?
2. If the Palestinian Authority orders "Fatah Tanzim" and other organizations indirectly linked to the PA's security services to hand over their weapons for confiscation or destruction. What do you believe that "Fatah Tanzim" and other organization should do?
Polls play a crucial role in public debate and policy-making in Israel. And while the propriety of poll-driven policy is questionable, just as serious a problem poll design is frequently overlooked.
A poll is as good as its questions. Often, either by design or error, pollsters and their clients have either misstated the question or the meaning of the results.
Oslo enthusiasts routinely claim the public supports Oslo, citing the monthly Peace Index conducted by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University. Last month's Peace Index, for example, found more than three-quarters of Israelis support the "peace process."
But the very same poll has another figure that Oslo promoters never mention less than a quarter of Israelis (23.3%) support Oslo itself!
Poll design is critical. The recent Smith Research poll commissioned by Independent Media Review and Analysis and the Zionist Organization of America finds that Israeli Jewish support for withdrawal to the 1967 lines in return for peace with the Palestinians and Arab states plummets from 40% to 16%, when it is specified that such a withdrawal includes the Golan Heights, Jordan Valley, and Old City of Jerusalem.
Sometimes poll questions are mislabeled, leading to serious confusion. Ever since Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah offered his proposal that includes the right of Palestinian refugees to choose to live within the borders of Israel instead of compensation pollsters have been asking if the public supports "the Saudi plan" without specifying that it includes the right of return anathema to Israelis and a must for Palestinians.
The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research's latest poll received considerable attention with its finding that two-thirds of Palestinians support the Saudi initiative, without explicitly mentioning the right of return in their question.
PSR tried to present the result as proof that the Palestinian public is willing to compromise on the right of return. But PSR's respondents know the Saudi plan includes the right of return.
The recent IMRA-ZOA commissioned poll by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion under the supervision of its president, Dr. Nabil Kukali, found only 24% would support Saudi plan "if the plan does not include the right of return of refugees to within the borders of Israel."
There is a place for polls. But without proper preparation and interpretation they can seriously misrepresent the public's views.