Michigan Parole Board Recidivism Statistics Are The Basis For This Chart
In a recent U.S. Supreme court case, the court said that "Sex offenders are 4.5 times more likely to commit a sex crime upon returning to the community than NON-Sex Offenders."
Describing an offender type as being a type that is -more likely- to commit an offense type than an offender who has not committed that offense type before, is describing "Specialists" and it is a characteristic true of any offender type.
The charts shown use actual Michigan parolee statistics (stats from 1990 through 2000) to demonstrate the "specialization factors" for those offense types. For example, the chart shows a sex offender is 5.47 times -more likely- to commit a sex offense than a non-sex offender on parole.
However, because of the sheer numbers of non-sex offenders on parole, Michigan statistics show they will commit more NEW sex offenses (72%), and are a higher risk to the community than sex offenders (28%).
In Michigan, and a few other states, a high percentage of paroled sex offenders have gone through prison therapy. Accordingly, even though their "specialization factor" appears high, therapy reduces that factor.
Therapy, denied by the state or refused by the offender, was a factor in the deaths of all of the recent tragedies where little girls were murdered.
These seven offense types have the highest "specialization factors": Forgery (20.17), Auto Theft (18.0), Burglary (8.95), Sex Offenses (5.47), Robbery (5.02), Larceny (4.51), and Drug offender (3.31).
An important fact about these is, if you average all the "specific offense types" together (colored red), and average the "non-specific offense types" together (colored green), it shows the non-specific offenders (colored green) commit 53.4% of the new crimes overall.
Why is this critically important to legislative vision? Because it shows, when legislators target legislation to a specific offender type (sex offenders recently), that legislation is ignoring an average of 53.4% of those persons who will be committing that offense type.
Further, at the individual offense type level that percentage may be much higher (see 72% for non-sex offenders). That means for every ONE sex offense committed by a sex offender, TWO+ are committed by non-sex offenders. Legislation ignores these offenders!
All crimes are committed by (1) a person who has committed that offense type before (specialists), or (2) a person who has committed some other offense type before (non-specialists to this offense type), or (3) a person who has never committed any crime before. Legislation today, with respect to sex offenders, focuses only on controlling the offender (specialist), when that is the smallest percentage of offenders.
Legislative vision should focus on (1) public education and prevention methods such as therapy in prison, (2) focus on other felons (non-specialists) who commit more actual NEW sex crimes (72%) on parole, rather than focusing only on sex offender (specialists). That will have more effect in reducing future victimizations.
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The offense types with the highest "Specialist" factors:
(Shown Highest to lowest by "Specialization Factor")
|
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Forgery Offenses as a Percentage |
New Forgery Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Forgery Offenses |
1,896 |
Forgery Offenders |
6.86% (20.17) |
130 |
35.5% |
69,093 |
Non-Forgery Offenders |
.34% |
236 |
64.5% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
.52% |
366 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Auto Theft Offenses as a Percentage |
New Auto Theft Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Auto Theft Offenses |
1,933 |
Auto Theft Offenders |
7.92% (18.0) |
153 |
33% |
69,056 |
Non-Auto Theft Offenders |
.44% |
305 |
67% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
.65% |
458 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Burglary Offenses as a Percentage |
New Burglary Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Burglary Offenses |
9,255 |
Burglary Offenders |
10.56% (8.95) |
977 |
57.2% |
61,734 |
Non-Burglary Offenders |
1.18% |
730 |
42.8% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
2.40% |
1,707 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Sex Offenses as a Percentage |
New Sex Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Sex Offenses |
4,762 |
Sex Offenders |
2.46% (5.47) |
117 |
28% |
66,227 |
Non-Sex Offenders |
.45% |
299 |
72% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
.59% |
416 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Robbery Offenses as a Percenatge |
New Robbery Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Robbery Offenses |
7,141 |
Robbery Offenders |
5.17% (5.02) |
369 |
36% |
63,848 |
Non-Robbery Offenders |
1.03% |
656 |
64% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
1.61% |
1,025 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Larceny Offenses as a Percentage |
New Larceny Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Larceny Offenses |
12,565 |
Larceny Offenders |
12.65% (4.51) |
1,590 |
49% |
58,424 |
Non-Larceny Offenders |
2.8% |
1,652 |
51% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
4.60% |
3,242 |
100% |
No. Paroled |
All Offenders Paroled 1990 through 2000 |
New Drug Offenses as a Percentage |
New Drug Offenses Over 11 Years |
Percentage of New Drug Offenses |
15,485 |
Drug Offenders |
6.42% (3.31) |
994 |
48% |
55,504 |
Non-Drug Offenders |
1.94% |
1,076 |
52% |
70,989 |
All Offenders Paroled |
2.92% |
2,070 |
100% |
Source: Extrapolated from Annual Michigan Department of Corrections, Statistical Report, Parole Board Charts D2 and D2a, years 1990 through 2000. See also: Michigan Recidivism Stats 1990-2000.
See Dep't of Justice, "Specialists" pgs 9-10 Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 1994 Note: "Forgery" above is actually "Forgery and Uttering & Publishing"
Cautionary notes: (1) Some specialists may only be that because of youthful consensual relationships, albeit technically illegal; (2) There are a host of other circumstances that may create specialists (see Politically Correct? Incorrect?); (3) legislation must recognize that even though an offense type may have a high "specialist" factor, that not every offender in that offense type is a specialist, accordingly these must be sifted out of legislation.
News & Noteworthy ©, Copyright 2006 - All Rights Reserved
To link back to this chart: http://www.oocities.org/voicism/index-charts.html#chte
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