| MISLEADING | "A) sex offenders are four times more likely to be repeat offenders"
"B) Sex offenders are four times more likely than non-sex offenders to be arrested
for another related crime after their discharge from prison." |
TRUTH | "94.7% of released sex offenders ARE NOT 4-times more likely to be arrested
for another related crime after their discharge from prison" |
These comments, made various ways, are made so often it will not be possible to list everyone that makes them! |
| City of Pasadena:
Pasadena Police |
.Statistics show that "nearly two-thirds of all state prisoners serving time for rape and sexual assault victimized children. Almost one-third of these victims were less than 11-years-old. Even more unsettling is that sex offenders have a high likelihood of re-offending-- in fact, they are nine times more likely to repeat their crimes than any other class of criminal." ..more..
: Pasedena Police Dep't (Accessed 6-9-2006)
| ChoicePoint:
SAFE NONPROFITS INITIATIVE |
.Of course, hiring a convicted criminal does not mean that the person will commit the same crime again. We believe in the goodness of people and those that can be rehabilitated. However, nonprofit organizations need to consider the recidivism statistics for certain crimes, particularly sex offenders. Sex offenders are four times more likely than non-sex offenders to be arrested for another related crime after their discharge from prison. Nonprofit organizations need to protect the people they serve, and a simple, but thorough background screening (and the appropriate action) can alleviate issues before they arise.
..more..
: by ChoicePoint (Accessed 6-9-2006)
| 6-7-2006 Tennessee:
Some Sex Offenders Not On Tennessee Registry |
.Jerry Inman's criminal history dates back to his teens, when a Florida court convicted him of sexually battering a 30-year old woman. Inman did 16 years in prison. When he got out last year, he went to live at his parent’s house in Dandridge, Tennessee. [snip]
Detective Jimmy Clift keeps track of sex offenders for the Hamilton County Sheriff's Office. [snip] Detective Clift says, "How do you deem which one? How do you pick out of 300 plus which ones are going to (offend again)?" It's an almost impossible position to be in. Statistics show a sex offender is three times more likely to commit another offense than other criminals. ..more..
: by Melissa Riopka, NEWS 12 (Accessed 6-9-2006)
The story behind the "MORE LIKELY" figures and comments!
Above we show a few of the many ways "more likely" has been used or misquoted.
|
The study that addressed the "more likely" issue was: Recidivism of sex offenders released in 1994 Washington, DC: Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report, Langan, P. A., & Levin, D. J. NCJ-198281. The "Highlights" (pg-1) said:
"Rearrest for a new sex crime: Compared to non-sex offenders released from State prisons, released sex offenders were 4 times more likely to be rearrested for a sex crime. Within the first 3 years following their release from prison in 1994, 5.3% (517 of the 9,691) of released sex offenders were rearrested for a sex crime. The rate for the 262,420 released non-sex offenders was lower, 1.3% (3,328 of 262,420)."
There are many versions of the "more likely" floating around, the one by the Pasadena Police (9-times) seems to be a WAG statement with no foundation. The DOJ cited comment is shown above. However, when folks quote that statement they fail to include what is shown underlined above.
Without the underlined portion of the DOJ cite the public is often mislead, they fail to see that nonsex offenders released have committed sex crimes. In fact, the nonsex offenders released committed six-times the number of new sex offenses than did sex offenders released from prison. See the following chart of the DOJ stats:
| Number Released | Offender Types | ReArrested for a New Sex Offense | New Sex Offenses | % of New Sex Offenses |
9,691 | Sex Offenders | 5.3% | 517 | 13% |
262,420 | Non-Sex Offenders | 1.3% | 3,328 | 87% |
272,111 | All Offenders Released | 1.4% | 3,845 | 100% |
Further, computation: 5.3%/1.3%=4.07 -or- four times more likely. HOWEVER, does that mean all 9,691 released sex offenders are 4-times more likely, no, it means only those who have recidivated; the 5.3% or 517. Accordingly, what the numbers show is 94.7% of the released offenders ARE NOT 4-times more likely to recidivate!
The computation shows that recidivists are 4-times more likely to be rearrested than are nonsex offenders released from prison. "The first 12 months following their release from a State prison was the period when 40% of sex crimes were allegedly committed by the released sex offenders. Recidivism studies typically find that, the older the prisoner when released, the lower the rate of recidivism." pg-1 The study goes on showing that a review of the offender's background will provide more reliable information.
Table-6 (pg-12) Shows that 29.0% of the child molesters, and, 38.4% of the statutory rapists had a prior sex offense before their current sentence which they were being released on. Further, 74.5% of the child molesters and 73.7% of the rapists, this was their first release from prison.
Each individual person's background needs to be reviewed and that is exactly what is not being done, nor do registries provide the information. This results in folks are making broad statements to mask the truth!
TRUTH: "94.7% of released sex offenders ARE NOT 4-times more likely to be arrested for another related crime after their discharge from prison"
eAdvocate |
|
|