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turkey to join u.s. attack on iraq
Beside Israel, there are no enthusiastic public supporters for the
US-led war against Iraq within the region. The recent Arab League
summit called for a "total rejection of the threat of aggression on
Arab nations, especially Iraq." Despite the public resistance, the US
continues to bring intense political and economic pressure to bear on
its regional allies to support the war and participate in the
invasion of Iraq. The most important prospective collaborator in the
occupation of Iraq is its northern neighbor, Turkey.
While no Arab leader would publicly stand for war on Iraq in
Vice-President Cheney's failed diplomatic tour in March, Deputy
Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz's visit to Turkey in July has born
fruit. Turkey fears the Iraqi Kurds will use an invasion of Iraq to
consolidate their hold on the northern region's immense oil wealth
and in so doing achieve independence. To offset the Ankara's
hesitations the Deputy Defense Secretary discussed writing
off $5 billion in debt and gave an emphatic promise that the US would
never support a Kurdish state.
US opposition to Kurdish self-determination
For the past fifteen-years the Turks have fought a counterinsurgency
war against the Turkish Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) claiming 30,000
lives. A Kurdish state in northern Iraq would politically re-ignite
the Kurdish aspirations for self-determination within Turkey.
In a meeting with the Deputy Defense Secretary the Washington Post
July 17, 2002 reports Turkey's military Chief of Staff, Gen. Huseyin
Kivrikoglu, "questioned how the United States was planning to prevent
the creation of a Kurdish state." In an interview with the Turkish
daily Hurriyet Wolfowitz stressed "... we've been very clear that we
are opposed to a Kurdish state in Iraq, and not only are we opposed
to it, but we are actively working and thinking about how to make
sure that it doesn't happen."
The Washington Post article on Wolfowitz's visit concludes with a
startling glimpse of the strategic discussions between the US and
Turkey regarding the war on Iraq. "Turkey also warned that the oil
rich areas of Mosul and Kirkuk in northern Iraq should not be put
under the control of Iraqi Kurds...
The areas are just outside the autonomous Kurdish zone." These towns
are outside of the administrative boundaries of the Iraqi Kurdish
provinces. As the southern rim of the Kurdish regions they have for
decades been a source of conflict between Kurdish claims and those of
the government of Iraq. Turkish control of these two key areas from
the north would bring the entire Iraqi Kurdish region under Turkish
rule.
Under the US/UK northern 'no-fly-zone' Iraqi Kurdistan has functioned
as an autonomous region. It is politically and regionally fairly
equally divided between the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) around
Irbil, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) around
Sulaymaniyah. Despite the UN sanctions on Iraq, the KPD has developed
a lucrative trade in Iraqi oil brought by truck overland to Turkey.
The PUK challenged the KPD monopoly of oil revenues in September 1997
igniting an open Kurdish civil war. Both the Baghdad and Ankara
intervened on the side of the KPD to block a PUK victory.
Turkey has no significant oil deposits and has benefited from the
discount oil from Iraq, but for years Ankara has expressed growing
concerns that continued oil revenues, estimated at more than a
million dollars a day, provide the economic basis for a Kurdish
state. It has recently announced that it is ending the relationship
by prohibiting the oil trade with the Iraqi Kurds.
'Northern Iraq is under our safekeeping'
Since the 1990 Gulf War, Turkish chauvinists have increased their
claims for the return of the former Ottoman control over Mosul and
Kirkuk, lost to the British in 1919. They also raise the defense of
the national rights of the Iraqi Turkmen minority concentrated near
Kirkuk. A leader of Turkey's largest parliamentary party, the
Nationalist Action Party, recently called "for the declaration of an
autonomous Turkmen region that would include Kirkuk."
These noble ideals about the defense of national minorities in Iraq
are intended to conceal the Turkish ambition to seize the oil-rich
region Kirkuk and Mosul.
Turkish military control of Kirkuk and Mosul will envelop the Iraqi
Kurds, effectively choking off the emergence of a Kurdish state.
On August 20 this sentiment was framed for the first time as official
Turkish policy by Defense Minister Sabahattin Cakmakoglu's statement
claiming "It is an area which had been forcibly
separated, ...Northern Iraq is under our safekeeping." (AP August 23,
02) The Iraqi Kurdish leader of the KPD Masoud Barzani responded to
the threat of Turkish military occupation of northern Iraq pledging
to fight the Turks in Iraq and to turn the region into the
Turks' "graveyard." The Turkish daily Milliyet August 22 warned the
KPD leader that he "does not have the luxury to lose the support of
Turkey." And pointing to Turkey's strong ties with Washington, "It
would be very useful for the US to remind him of this again."
The Turkish intervention in Iraq
Those who doubt the likelihood of US support for Turkish military
intervention in Iraq should consider two points:
1) Turkey's involvement would give the occupation forces in Iraq a
multinational character. Turkey is currently providing troops in
Afghanistan. The so-called "green helmets," because of Turkey's
Islamic background, could similarly be given the label
of "peacekeepers" in Iraq. A British and US occupation of Iraq will
be greatly enhanced by Turkey's participation.
2) The US has an established record of supporting massive Turkish
military incursions into northern Iraq in recent years. On December
31,1996 a US and Turkey agreement approved the further use of
Incirlik airbase for the US and British patrols over Iraq on the
condition that the stated mission of the "no-fly-zone" over northern
Iraq be changed. Until then Operation Provide Comfort claimed a
humanitarian mission of protecting the Kurds of northern
Iraq. This was changed to Operation Northern Watch where the
parameters of the new mission omitted any mention of protecting
anyone. The new mission calls simply for the "containment" of Iraq.
US support for Turkish invasions of Iraq
In September of 1997, 15,000 Turkish troops crossed into Iraq
supported with armor and helicopters against Kurdish separatists.
Since then there have been repeated military incursions by Turkey of
similar scale into northern Iraq.
These violations of Iraqi sovereignty enjoy the aircover of the US
and British warplanes from Operation Northern Watch. The Turkish
moves against the Kurds in Iraq also have the diplomatic support of
the US (See April 18, 2001, State Department press conference with
the US Iraq Coordinator, Mr. Ricciardone). As of September 10, 2002
Reuters reports that 5,000 Turkish troops are currently deployed in
Iraq.
The Iraqi northern border has become a political fiction. The erosion
of Iraqi sovereignty through the US and British control of its
northern airspace and the Turkish interventions have effectively
erased the internationally recognized border.
Military intervention in northern Iraq is not a strategic option for
Turkey. It is an established fact. What is debatable is the extent of
the future Turkish military intervention in northern Iraq.
An ethnic war for oil in Iraq
A US attack on Iraq and a corresponding escalation of Turkish
intervention in northern Iraq will initiate a new ethnic war in
Kurdistan. The threats between Turkey and the Iraqi Kurdish leader
continue to escalate. Turkish Prime Minister Ecevit stated this
month, "Kurdish leaders in Iraq, especially Barzani, have airs
of, 'Well, the United States will not abandon us.' This is
very ugly and rocks our relations... It's impossible for us to
stomach this." (Reuters, September 12)
There can be no accommodation between the demands of the Iraqi Kurds
and Turkey. Turkey's vital participation in the US attack on Iraq is
conditioned on Washington promoting their interests alone. They
insist the spoils of war on Iraq go to them, not the Iraqi Kurds. The
stage is set for an ethnic war over the oil of northern Iraq.
Bob Allen
September 19, 2002
