UNIT THREE: Second Reading for MACRO
SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS
The assigned reading for supply-side economics is pp. 248-250 and pp. 446-461. To understand supply-side economics, you should know something about demand-side economics, also known as Keynesian economics. On the other hand, to understand demand-side economics, you need to know something about supply-side economics! In this course, we will deal with supply-side economics first and demand-side economics second. The origin of supply-side economics goes back to a nineteenth-century economist, Jean Say, who posited that Supply will create its own demand. By this, Say meant that the reason we participate in the labor force is to be paid. In turn, we will then buy the goods and services we need and want. Say also meant that the portion of disposable income that is saved will be converted into investment. In other words, savings is the funding source for investment. Supply-siders view the demand for goods and services as a natural byproduct of a healthy, robust supply of goods and services to the macroeconomy. The emphasis of modern supply-side economics is to establish an appropriate tax and regulatory environment so that business firms will be induced to offer more goods and services to the market. Although some liberal economists (liberal being defined as advocating a more active role for government) offer certain policies as supply-side economics, it is primarily a conservative macroeconomics theory in that most supply-side economists want a laissez-faire approach from government. They want government to play a minimal role in the economy. One consequence of this minimalist philosophy is that the economy should be allowed to self-adjust. If the unemployment becomes too high, then wages should fall and at some lower wage rate, companies will find it profitable to start hiring again. Supply-siders don’t want interference with this process in the form of minimum-wage laws or time and one-half for overtime work. Just about any restriction on factor markets for labor, land, and capital is thought to be undesirable because as factor costs rise, it is more difficult for business firms to increase their production levels. Supply-side economics is about getting more production from the macroeconomy, not less.
Supply-Side Economics Tax Policies
1 |
Reduce personal income tax rates
. This will lead to an increase in household disposable income. There are only two things to do with disposable income: consumption spending or savings. The supply-side economist is hoping for more savings. A demand-side economist want more consumption spending. In reality, both consumption and savings will rise as disposable income goes up, but supply-siders emphasize the additional savings. More savings should lead to more business investment since savings is the funding source for investment. More investment in the macroeconomy means more capital goods installations such as tools, equipment, and machinery. This increases the macroeconomy’s productive capability and ultimately increases the GDP.
2 |
Reduce taxes on savings accounts.
You can probably tell where this is going: cutting taxes on savings is intended to induce more savings. More savings should result in more investment.
3 |
Reduce corporate income taxes.
If corporate profits taxes are cut, then corporations can do two things with the additional after-tax profits: they can increase dividend payouts to shareholders or they can increase the amount of their retained earnings. The likelihood is that both will occur. Supply-side economists are hoping for more retained earnings because this should lead to more business investment. Not surprisingly, retained earnings are a major component of business savings (the other element is depreciation). Business savings as well as personal savings are the funding sources for investment. More investment results in more efficiency and productive capability for the economy. Eventually, this means an increase in real GDP.
4 |
Reduce capital gains taxes.
As you probably know, a capital gain occurs when an asset is purchased and later sold at a higher price. This could happen as a result of a sale of shares of stock or the sale of real estate. In general, in the U.S. tax system, a capital gain is treated as a taxable event. The supply-side policy of reducing capital gains taxes is intended to provide incentives for investors to purchase stock sold in an initial public offering or as an additional stock offering from a company that is already publicly traded on a stock exchange. Tax policy alone won’t be determinative in whether an IPO is successful. But it could be a plus factor for an investor who is not sure about whether to buy stock in an IPO. The greater the number of successful initial stock offerings and the greater the number of additional stock offerings from companies already publicly traded, then the more these firms can increase their production of goods and services. That is what supply-side economics is all about, increasing production in the macroeconomy.
5 |
Increase taxes on consumption spending.
Remember that the only two choices available for disposable income are consumption spending and savings. The supply-side objective is to discourage consumption activity by taxing it. If consumption spending is discouraged, then that means saving is encouraged. Supply-siders want more savings as a funding source for investment.One option would be to establish a federal sales tax. This would be added to any applicable state sales taxes we already pay. The amount could be as low as two or three percent or could be much higher, especially if a national sales tax was used in place of the present federal income tax system. In the latter case, the federal sales tax could be in the range of 20%-25%. Some say this would be fair because it would be difficult to avoid paying it, whereas right now many individuals cheat on their federal income taxes by not filing returns or by seriously underreporting their income. Others say the federal sales tax would be unfair because it would be a regressive tax, hitting relatively harder at low-income citizens. Those who make this argument point out that the federal personal income tax system is about the only progressive tax we have. Those who favor a federal sales tax say that regressivity issues could be minimized by, say, not taxing food purchases.
6 |
Faster and accelerated methods of depreciation are favored.
Supply-side economists favor faster write-offs so that business firms will have the incentive to replace their machinery and equipment faster. As these replacements occur, the new capital goods will be more efficient than the old capital. This will result in an increase in real GDP. Consider the following three depreciation methods on a piece of equipment that cost $125,000 and has a residual value of $25,000.
Method 1 |
straight-line, 10 yrs. |
$10,000 depreciation per yr. |
$30,000 written off after 3 yrs. |
Method 2 |
straight-line, 5 yrs. |
$20,000 depreciation per yr. |
$60,000 written off after 3 yrs. |
Method 3 |
Accelerated, 5 yrs: 40%, 25%, 20%, 10%, 5% |
$40,000, then $25,000, then $20,000, then $10,000, then $5,000 |
$85,000 written off after 3 yrs. |
If we examine the right-hand column, we can tell that method 1 would be the least favored by supply-side economists while method 3 would be their first choice. Under method 3, business firms would have the most incentive to replace this piece of equipment quickly. The result is more investment.
7 |
Tax credits for research and development.
Reducing the tax exposure for corporations that fund R & D should result in more research and development. Why do supply-side economists want more R & D? Because more R & D should lead to advances in technology and new technology will manifest itself in the macroeconomy through improved capital goods installations.As we worked our way through these supply-side tax policies, you noticed the common theme of more investment. This is one part of supply-side economics. The other major element is supply-side deregulation.
Supply-Side Deregulation
You already know that supply-side economists are interested in tax policies that increase profits for corporations so that more retained earnings are available for business investment. Deregulation is another way of incresing profits for companies. This will induce more investment.
Profit equals total revenue minus total costs. Business firms spend money to satisfy regulatory requirements, so the elimination of any unnecessary regulations would have the effect of increasing profits. When profits rise, firms are in position to expand their supply of goods and services to the market. This may include new retail outlets or entering new geographical areas or the introduction of new product lines. Firms can increase their production of goods so long as the additional revenues earned are sufficient to cover the additional costs incurred. When profits are good this condition is more likely to be satisfied. Conversely, when regulatory costs (or other costs, such as labor) are high, it is less likely that expansion will yield enough revenue to cover the additional expenses. If profits are squeezed business firms will cut back on their production, typically by trimming their work forces. Supply-side economics is about obtaining more production, not less; so more profits are clearly desirable.
Deregulation in Product Markets
Suppose the Baldman Pharmaceutical Company develops a new pill called "Pate". It is for men whose hair is falling out. Pate is designed to stop further hair loss and also stimulate new growth. It is intended to be sold over the counter instead of by prescription. Before this drug can be offered to the public, government regulations require that studies be done to prove that Pate is both safe and effective. These controlled studies prove to be expensive, costing Baldman two million dollars. The results are conclusive that Pate is safe but inconclusive on whether it is effective. Government regulators want more studies in order to determine whether this pill is really effective. The cost to Baldman will be another two million dollars and so Baldman pulls Pate from the market and moves on to develop other pharmaceutical products.
Whether or not Pate is sold on the market is not a life or death matter, but supply-side economics is concerned with ways of increasing GDP, not decreasing it. Supply-siders accept the proposition that both prescription and over the counter drugs should be safe before being sold to the public, but in this case the effectiveness issue can be determined by the market itself. As long as the drug is safe, why not?
Some years ago, airlines were deregulated and one of the government agencies involved in airline regulation, the Civil Aeronautics Board, was phased out of existence over a period of several years. Before deregulation, airlines had to have both their routes and fares approved by the CAB. Since deregulation, each airline can decide which routes it wants to fly and what fares it will charge. The intent was to spur competition in the industry and provide lower fares for the flying public.
The structure of the industry was oligopolistic before deregulation. A relatively small number of carriers dominated the business. Today, the industry is still an oligopoly. This may be due to the large capital (each plane costs tens of millions of dollars) and advertising requirements that are needed to compete in this business.
Some cities are heavily dominated by one carrier that has significant market power and may use it to charge higher fares. Other cities have two or more airlines with substantial market shares and enjoy lower fares, particularly if one of the airlines happens to be Southwest. Their efficient operation has provided them with a lower cost structure and has put pressure on their competition.
Overall, fares today are lower on an inflation-adjusted basis than they were twenty years ago, so in this sense airline deregulation has been a success. However, in some cities, the service level has been diminished and there are fewer direct flights than there used to be.
Deregulation in Factor Markets
Supply-side economists want to keep the cost of labor, land, and capital down. Keeping factor costs low should increase corporate profits and result in more business investment. This in turn raises the productive capability of the economy and drives up GDP. Much of the regulation in factor markets deals with the labor force.
A typical target for supply-side economists is the minimum-wage law, passed back in 1938. Do you know the original hourly minimum wage when this law (known as The Fair Labor Standards Act) was first passed? In fact, we’ll make this a "hidden" two-point bonus question to be added to your next exam score. Just send an e-mail with your answer. Supply-side economists don’t like the minimum wage concept because when the price of labor or any other factor of production rises, then under the law of demand, buyers don’t purchase as much of it. This is just as true in factor markets such as the labor market as it is in consumer retail markets. Since increasing the minimum wage results in some job loss, this means that the GDP growth rate is less than it could be. In addition, a rise in the minimum wage will lead to wage increases for non-minimum wage employees. There is no rule that says this has to be so, but it has worked that way ever since the minimum wage law was passed. It should be noted that while there is some job loss associated with minimum wage increases, those who are earning the minimum wage do receive more income and their households are better off.
Supply-side economists don’t support laws such as time and a half compensation for overtime because this increases the cost of production for business firms and makes it less likely that the additional production will be profitable. Supply-side economists would prefer that this matter be left to the employer and the employee.
This approach to the labor market only goes so far. Supply-side economists definitely don’t favor small children working in factories, mines or sweatshops. The free market has its limits.
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